Texas Power Demand Seen Breaking Summer Record in Grid Test

Electricity usage on the state’s main grid is expected to top 82.7 gigawatts during normal summer weather to surpass last July’s high of 80 gigawatts, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas said Wednesday in its summer assessment. One gigawatt is enough to power about 200,000 Texas homes.

Ercot, as the operator is known, said more than 97 gigawatts of capacity is expected to be available during summertime periods of highest demand for a grid that serves more than 26 million customers. But for the first time, that demand is seen exceeding what can be generated from fossil-fueled or nuclear power plants alone.

“The Texas grid faces a new reality,” Peter Lake, who heads the state regulator that oversees electric utilities, told reporters on a conference call. “We will be relying on renewables to keep the lights on.”

Electricity use in Texas has been rising thanks to a growing economy, an influx of people moving to the state and a surge in energy-intensive Bitcoin mining. Texas has been working to make its grid more robust during extreme weather since a deadly winter storm in 2021 crippled the system. The network was further tested last summer when intense heat triggered soaring consumption that shattered records 11 times within a matter of weeks.

“We will continue to use every tool available to keep the lights on and AC running this summer, but we do not have any control over the wind and sun,” said Lake, who’s chairman of the Public Utility Commission of Texas.

Most of Texas has a 50% to 60% chance of having above average temperatures from May to July, according to the US Climate Prediction Center. Sweltering heat can prompt homeowners and businesses to crank up air conditioners, adding strain to the electrical system.

Ercot’s highest risk scenario shows that extreme weather would test the grid. Record demand during such an unlikely scenario could trigger shortfalls if there are a significant number of unplanned power-plant breakdowns and little power from wind and solar sources.

Grid reliability would be threatened if high heat comes when there is low electricity generation from plants fueled by coal, natural gas or nuclear energy and a lack of wind and solar power, Ercot Chief Executive Officer Pablo Vegas said during the call. The chances of that happening this summer would be less than 1%, he said.