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EnergyNow Morning Oil Price Report
Report Date & Time: September 22, 2026 – 5:31 a.m. MDT – Using Trading View Prices
Summary
- WTI’s expiring October contract is approximately US$93.28 per barrel, down US$2.50, or 2.61%, from Monday’s official US$95.78 settlement. The more actively traded November contract is around US$89.92, reflecting today’s contract rollover and a sharply lower forward price.
- Brent crude is approximately US$98.33 per barrel, down US$2.01, or 2.00%, from Monday’s US$100.34 settlement. Brent, October WTI and November WTI all touched their lowest levels since September 8 as immediate Gulf supply fears eased.
- Two developments are driving the selloff: Saudi Arabia has restarted its East-West Pipeline, potentially allowing Yanbu exports to resume, while Iran says it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if U.S. military pressure and the blockade of Iranian ports are eased.
Latest Oil Prices
At approximately 5:31 a.m. MDT Tuesday, October WTI was trading near US$93.28 per barrel, versus Monday’s official settlement of US$95.78. That represents a decline of US$2.50, or 2.61%, leaving crude clearly down this morning.
Brent was approximately US$98.33, compared with Monday’s settlement of US$100.34, a decline of US$2.01, or 2.00%.
There is an unusually important WTI contract rollover today. The October contract expires Tuesday, while the more actively traded November WTI contract is around US$89.92, down roughly 2.65% today. Readers may therefore see WTI prices around $93 or $90 depending on the contract displayed. The $93.28 October price is used above because it provides the proper like-for-like comparison with Monday’s October settlement.
Why Oil Is Moving
The biggest development is the restart of Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West Pipeline.
Drone attacks forced the pipeline offline on September 13 and halted crude loadings from Yanbu. The system has now restarted at a reduced rate, and Saudi Aramco is working toward restoring capacity of approximately 4 million barrels per day — roughly 4% of global oil supply. A China-bound cargo is scheduled to load from Yanbu Tuesday.
Saudi exports through Hormuz have also recovered. Aramco loaded approximately 14 million barrels onto seven supertankers Sunday, providing further evidence that Saudi barrels are finding their way back into the global market.
The second major bearish catalyst is diplomacy.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States eases military pressure and removes its blockade on Iranian ports. Iran’s delegation at this week’s United Nations General Assembly has also been given authority to pursue renewed diplomacy with Washington.
Key Market Risks or Catalysts
The market will now focus on whether diplomatic statements translate into actual increases in tanker traffic through Hormuz. Before the conflict, the Strait carried approximately one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies.
Saudi pipeline flows are equally important. The East-West system is operating at a reduced rate, and no timetable has been provided for restoring its full 4-million-bpd capacity.
One major bullish counterweight is diesel. Global diesel supplies remain exceptionally tight after the wars involving Iran and Ukraine disrupted exports from major producers. U.S. diesel inventories are at their lowest September level since 1982, and analysts expect global tightness to persist into 2027.
Bottom Line
The oil market has undergone a dramatic repricing in just several trading sessions.
Brent has fallen below $100, while the incoming November WTI contract is now below $90. Saudi Arabia’s pipeline restart and Iran’s willingness to discuss reopening Hormuz have substantially reduced the immediate geopolitical premium.
But the physical market is not yet back to normal. A sustained move lower will likely require actual restoration of Hormuz flows, not simply diplomatic promises.
Western Canadian Select (WCS)
The latest verified physical-market assessment is for Monday, September 21, when Platts assessed WCS at Hardisty at a US$21.35-per-barrel discount to WTI CMA, widening US$0.35 from Friday’s approximately US$21.00 discount. It was the seventh consecutive session of weakening and the widest WCS differential since December 2023.
Because this WCS assessment is priced against WTI CMA rather than Monday’s expiring NYMEX October futures settlement, a reliable outright WCS dollar price cannot be calculated simply by subtracting $21.35 from Monday’s $95.78 WTI futures close. Doing so would mix different benchmark methodologies. The latest defensible comparison is therefore WCS Hardisty at WTI CMA minus US$21.35, versus WTI CMA itself, with the discount widening by US$0.35 per barrel from the previous trading day.
The widening is being driven by heavy refinery maintenance, rising Western Canadian production and increasingly tight pipeline capacity. S&P Global says refinery maintenance is removing about 750,000 bpd of demand, while the Trans Mountain system is effectively running at full capacity, reducing the spare export capacity that previously helped keep WCS discounts narrower.
Tuesday morning WTI prices should not be combined with Monday’s WCS assessment to present a current Tuesday spread. A fresh Tuesday Hardisty assessment will not be available until later in the trading day.
Who Watches the WCS Price
Oil sands producers realize WCS-linked prices on unhedged production, and their capital plans key off the differential outlook. US Midwest and Gulf Coast refiners with coking capacity buy WCS as feedstock and treat the differential as their margin opportunity. The Alberta government forecasts royalty and tax revenue directly off WCS — a one-dollar move in the differential is worth hundreds of millions of dollars to the provincial budget over a fiscal year. And diluent demand links WCS volumes back to condensate markets.
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