Oil Jumps More Than 3% as U.S.-Iran Military Strikes Reignite Hormuz Supply Fears

Report Time: August 31, 2026 — 5:33 a.m. MDT

Summary

• WTI crude is trading near US$86.27 per barrel on TradingView, up approximately $2.87, or 3.4%, from Friday’s official $83.40 settlement. The sharp Monday rally follows renewed U.S. military strikes against Iran and Iranian retaliation.
• Brent crude is trading around US$91.25 per barrel, up approximately $1.94, or 2.2%, compared with Friday’s expiring October-contract settlement of $89.31. Reuters showed Brent up 3.6% versus the appropriate rolled-contract reference as trading shifted into November.
• Geopolitics has abruptly returned as the dominant market driver. U.S. forces struck Iranian military launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran said it retaliated against U.S. bases in Jordan. Shipping through Hormuz deteriorated again over the weekend.

Latest Oil Prices

Oil prices are sharply higher Monday morning, reversing much of last week’s decline as renewed military action between the United States and Iran restores a significant geopolitical premium to crude.

TradingView showed its NYMEX WTI continuous contract at approximately US$86.27 per barrel at report time, up about 3.5% on its session comparison. Against Friday’s official Reuters-reported settlement of $83.40, WTI has gained roughly $2.87 per barrel, or 3.4%.

Reuters showed Brent at $91.25 per barrel at 3:03 a.m. MDT, up $3.15, or 3.58%, against the new active contract’s prior reference.

There is an important Brent rollover issue this morning. The October ICE Brent contract expired Friday at $89.31, and the market has rolled into November. OilPrice.com showed November Brent around $90.93-$90.96 this morning. Consequently, simply subtracting Friday’s expired October settlement from today’s November quote exaggerates or distorts the true session move.

Why Oil Is Moving

The answer this morning is overwhelmingly renewed U.S.-Iran military escalation.

U.S. forces struck two Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island, located directly in the Strait of Hormuz, on Sunday. Reuters described the action as the first known U.S. strikes inside Iran since late July.

Iranian media subsequently reported that the Revolutionary Guards retaliated by attacking two U.S. air bases in Jordan.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo told Reuters that renewed military strikes and concern over further oil-supply disruption were lifting crude prices, with the market now watching closely for either escalation or de-escalation.

The change in sentiment is dramatic. Only Friday, traders were pushing crude lower on expectations that diplomatic efforts might reopen Hormuz more fully. WTI lost more than 4% and Brent more than 5% last week as additional Gulf barrels reached international markets.

Key Market Risks and Catalysts

The Strait of Hormuz is again the central market risk.

Only about five visible commodity vessels per day crossed the Strait over the weekend, according to shipping data cited by Reuters — a significant deterioration from some of the improvement seen last week. A tanker was also reportedly struck by a projectile while entering Hormuz Saturday.

Before the war, approximately one-fifth of global oil supply moved through this narrow shipping corridor. Any sustained interruption can therefore affect millions of barrels per day.

Sanctions could add another layer of pressure. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington is likely to introduce new secondary sanctions against Iran every week, potentially targeting companies and countries that continue facilitating Iranian trade.

Another development to watch is the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. President Donald Trump said Sunday that crude obtained under Washington’s new Venezuela arrangement would be used to replenish the SPR, currently near its lowest level in approximately 44 years.

Bottom Line

Oil has moved decisively higher to begin the week.

WTI is up roughly 3.4% from Friday’s settlement, while Brent is trading back above $91 as traders rapidly rebuild a geopolitical risk premium that had been stripped out of the market last week.

The immediate question is whether Sunday’s attacks remain limited or begin another cycle of retaliation. With military activity occurring directly around Hormuz, oil’s upside risk has increased materially again.