With only six months to go before the election, President Joe Biden’s strategy to lower gasoline prices is in jeopardy.

The administration’s soft approach to sanctions on oil from Iran, Russia and Venezuela has been key to its efforts to tame fuel costs. But that leniency is becoming politically riskier: Iran’s attack on Israel has intensified pressure on Biden to crack down on crude exports from the Islamic Republic. The OPEC member produces approximately 3 million barrels a day, equivalent to about 3% of global supply. And though Iranian crude might not find its way into US gasoline tanks, its presence generally helps to limit price gains.

The calculus is getting tricky for Biden before an election in which the rising cost of living is expected to figure prominently in voting decisions. History has shown that the fortunes of US presidents are closely tied to prices at the pump, even though they have little control over the oil market in the short term. As violence roils the Middle East, US gasoline prices have surged 18% this year—and the summer driving season hasn’t started.

“The Biden administration is just pathologically allergic to anything that would increase oil prices, and they have telegraphed that over and over again,” says Jim Lucier, managing director at Capital Alpha Partners, a research group in Washington. But, he adds, there’s not much the president can really do about it: “Biden is in a box on this question.”

The White House has run out of “good options” to keep prices in check, says Fernando Ferreira, director of Rapidan Energy Group’s geopolitical risk service. Tried-and-true strategies are reaching their limit.

Take, for instance, the president’s approach to crude from Iran, Russia and Venezuela. Despite more than a decade of US sanctions, Iran’s oil production last month surged to a six-year high of 3.3 million barrels a day. That’s up 75% from the low point in late 2020 under President Donald Trump, who stiffened penalties for those that violated existing prohibitions. Currently, about 80% of Iran’s exports of about 1.5 million barrels a day go to China, where they are refined by small independent refineries, according to a congressional report.

Led by the US, Group of Seven countries implemented a $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian crude in September 2022. The goal: to curb the Russian government’s revenue to fund its war on Ukraine without choking off a critical source of supply. And even though the Biden administration reinstated oil sanctions on Venezuela, to punish President Nicolás Maduro for reneging on a pledge to hold free and fair elections, it’s allowing Chevron Corp. to continue operating in the country.

Now lawmakers are pushing the administration to take a tougher stance on the Iranian government in the wake of its drone strike on Israel earlier this month. Congress is trying to force the president’s hand, with provisions in the new Ukraine aid package spelling out sanctions that extend to foreign ports, vessels and refineries that knowingly accept Iranian crude.

Biden, who still has plenty of enforcement discretion, is unlikely to curtail Iranian oil exports significantly. Still, Republicans designed sanction waivers under the Ukraine aid measure to be public—potentially to embarrass him into action or, otherwise, help them make the case that he’s been too soft on Iran.

If Biden tries to “lower gasoline prices by providing sanctions relief, then Republicans will be able to pin him on it in the political theater that is this election cycle,” says Kevin Book, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners LLC.

The risks may be especially acute for Biden, because he’s taken pains to proclaim lower gas prices a priority. His high-profile pronouncements on the issue have included accusing oil companies of “war profiteering.” He’s also resorted to emergency measures to increase oil supplies, as a way of easing prices.

Since 2022 the president has authorized a historic release of more than 200 million barrels from the US emergency oil stockpile, draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to a 40-year low. And he’s issued waivers allowing widespread summertime sales of higher-ethanol E15 gasoline, which generally costs less than its conventional E10 counterpart. “Joe Biden is going to keep fighting to lower prices that squeeze families’ budgets, like gas prices,” Biden campaign spokesman Charles Lutvak said in an email.

There’s also been a behind-the-scenes component to the administration’s efforts to tamp down prices. In February, Vice President Kamala Harris asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to abstain from attacking Russian oil refineries, according to a person familiar with the matter. And during a visit to Saudi Arabia this fall, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told officials that the US would like to see OPEC start unwinding production cuts.

At home, Biden could once again tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, even though it’s only half full. Speaking at a conference earlier this month, White House climate adviser John Podesta refused to rule out another SPR release.

Some Democrats would like to see Biden curtail exports of American crude and refined fuels to lower prices temporarily. But over time, moves to lock in supplies domestically could backfire by leading to a glut, driving down prices and causing US refiners to dial back output. Similarly, oil companies might respond to export curbs by cutting production.

“There is a limit to what presidents can do,” says Dan Yergin, vice chair of S&P Global and the author of the Pulitzer Prize-winning The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power. “Presidents never get credit when gasoline prices are low, but they always get blamed when gasoline prices are high.” —With Daniel Flatley, Akayla Gardner and Justin Sink