By Julian Hast
US natural gas futures ended lower, but pared back most losses, after earlier being pulled down by crude and European gas futures. Those global energy prices fell on a US plan to increase economic pressure on Iran that seemed less likely to affect physical supply than investors expected.
While US gas is fundamentally unaffected by such geopolitical developments in the short run because the US has little flexibility in ramping up liquefied natural gas exports, sharp moves in oil and global gas markets can affect US gas as investors buy or sell the broader energy complex. But so-called “sympathy moves” in the US gas market, which have become more common since the Iran war rocked global energy markets in late February, are often reversed as traders push the market more in-line with fundamentals.
Losses were limited by declines in production and weather forecasts shifting hotter, indicating higher demand for the power-plant fuel as consumers ramp up air-conditioning use.
- Futures for September delivery settled -1.2c, or -0.4%, to $2.770/mmbtu on Nymex
Weather:
- Forecasts shifted hotter, with above-average temperatures expected across the Gulf, Midwest and Mid-Atlantic from Aug. 30-Sept. 8: Commodity Weather Group
Daily BNEF Gas Data:
- Lower-48 dry gas production on Tuesday ~111.1 bcf/day, or +1.6% y/y
- Lower-48 total gas demand on Tuesday ~77.7 bcf/day, or +2.4% y/y
- Dry gas exports to Mexico on Tuesday ~8.1 bcf/day, or -4.6% w/w
- Estimated gas flows to LNG export terminals on Tuesday ~17.3 bcf/day, or -3.1% w/w
Gas Market News:
- European Gas Dips as Hopes for Iran Diplomacy Weigh on Sentiment
- Asian LNG Prices Hit Five-Month High as US Raises Iran Pressure
- US Golden Pass LNG Ramp-Up Regains Momentum: BNEF Chart
- Rockies Basin Nat Gas Production Falls an Estimated 3.2%: BNEF
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
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