Qatari LNG Outage Shifts Global Gas Market Into Structural Deficit

Delayed Qatari capacity recovery is forecast to reshape LNG trade flows and energy security strategies worldwide

CALGARY, Alberta (May 20, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics platform, has released its latest report, Global Gas and LNG | Qatari Outage Fixes Oversupply, examining the long-term implications of the Qatar LNG outage and confirming the damage to roughly 17% of Qatar’s export capacity.

EIR’s forecast indicates the global LNG market will move into a supply deficit of approximately 8 Bcf/d in 2026, with shortages persisting through the end of the decade as Qatari capacity recovery and expansion projects are delayed.

According to EIR, the removal of low-cost Qatari LNG from global markets creates sustained competition between Europe and Asia for spot cargoes while reinforcing the strategic advantage of Pacific-facing LNG export projects in Canada and Mexico. The report also concludes that Asian markets with significant coal-switching flexibility are better positioned to absorb supply disruptions than markets lacking fuel-switching alternatives.

“The outage materially alters the global LNG balance by removing a significant source of low-cost supply during a period when export capacity elsewhere is already largely utilized. The resulting competition for marginal LNG cargoes is expected to keep global natural gas prices elevated while increasing the strategic value of supply diversification and Pacific-facing export infrastructure,” said Josephine Mills, report author and senior analyst at Enverus Intelligence Research.

Key takeaways:

EIR forecasts a global gas supply shortage of approximately 8 Bcf/d in 2026, reversing its prior expectation for near-market balance.
Roughly 2 Bcf/d of Qatari LNG export capacity is expected to remain offline until closer to 2030 because of lasting facility damage.
Asian countries with significant spare coal-fired generation capacity, including India, Japan and South Korea, are expected to absorb part of the LNG shortfall through fuel switching.
Pacific-facing LNG projects, including LNG Canada Phase 2 and Ksi Lisims LNG, a proposed $10-billion-plus, Indigenous-led floating LNG export facility on British Columbia’s northwest coast, may benefit from increased buyer focus on supply-chain security and shipping-route diversification.

EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE®.