After years of tight supply and wild price swings in the global gas market, there are signs of something different: too much of a good thing.

LNG Canada, the Shell Plc-led project in British Columbia, just exported its first shipment of liquefied natural gas. An even larger plant in Texas — Golden Pass — told US regulators that, after delays, it expects to begin startup activities in October.

This is just the beginning. A series of roughly two dozen new projects from North America to the Middle East is expected to lift export capacity more than 40% by 2030, likely outstripping growth in demand and transforming the market.

For comparison, capacity grew just 8% between 2020 and 2024.

The tidal wave isn’t exactly a shock to the market. Many of these new projects were approved even before the pandemic.

But supply-chain bottlenecks and high costs repeatedly pushed back start dates. The loss of Russian gas to Europe after the invasion of Ukraine further tightened the market, resulting in consistently higher prices that have raised questions about demand from emerging nations.

Now, some Asian buyers are delaying long-term deals precisely because they can see a looming production surge ahead — and better terms.

The catch is that rock-bottom LNG prices — good for nascent gas consumers, if not for the clean-energy transition — aren’t guaranteed.

One key unknown as the market heads into a glut is just how quickly big producers can ramp up output. The US, the world’s top exporter, is forecast to double shipments by 2030, while Qatar wants to lift production 85%.

There’s also the question of Russia’s continued, if troubled, effort to expand LNG exports. With much of its pipeline infrastructure facing Europe, the country has had to look to other means of exporting its gas eastward.

That plan may depend on a more lenient position from Washington, but Moscow has already been trying to restart shipments from a project effectively frozen by US sanctions. It could put even more LNG on the water.

As supply is added, the mood will almost inevitably shift. After years of seller dominance, global gas traders should prepare for a buyers’ market.

–Stephen Stapczynski, Bloomberg News