The oil traders swarming Miami’s South Beach for three days of holiday drinking, dining and schmoozing were mostly male, mostly White and mostly united in the belief that Donald Trump will champion the industry when he returns to the White House.

Even so, they couldn’t seem to agree on what his second term would mean for prices. At dozens of parties that have become an annual industry tradition, some traders argued that the president-elect’s unpredictable decision-making would inject volatility into a range-bound market, while others asserted he would swiftly resolve geopolitical conflicts from Gaza to Ukraine.

More volatility, of course, may mean higher returns — a welcome change of pace after a year of slumping commodity trading profits. But with an oil glut on the horizon, Trump’s vow to impose tariffs raised concerns of a trade war eroding already anemic demand.

At the Intercontinental Exchange’s opening party at a beachside steak house, a generational difference of opinion emerged, with the younger cohort more dismissive of Trump’s rhetoric on trade and foreign policy.

Yet those who bought and sold oil during his first presidential term offered a cautionary tale: Take him literally or end up on the wrong side of the trade.

Later, during a midday pool party at the pastel-hued Goodtime Hotel, guests debated whether Trump would impose a levy on oil imports. Canada was probably safe, one trader argued, because cutting off that supply would be an attack on Midwest refiners.

But a tariff on Mexico imports may give Trump leverage in his war on illegal immigration, another said.

Guests swapped more yearly predictions in between puffs of cigar and sips of sangria at the Nikki Beach Miami Beach club and, later, between complaints about the badly poured drinks at Exxon Mobil Corp.’s party.

But the debate mostly ceased as partygoers made their way to E11EVEN Miami, a 24-hour club which, that night, featured erotic dancers and a performance by rapper Tyga.

By morning, many were still split on how Trump would affect the market. But on one thing they could agree: Whatever happens in 2025, they’d all meet in Miami at the end of it and have a party.

–Mia Gindis and Christopher Charleston, Bloomberg News