Oil Steady on Demand Concerns After Fed Signals Slower Rate Cuts

Summary

Brent and WTI edge down
U.S. Fed outlook for two rate cuts in 2025 stirs demand worries
Global oil demand growth running below JP Morgan forecast

Dec 19 (Reuters) – Oil prices were fairly steady on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve signalled it would slow the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, which could hurt economic growth, reduce fuel demand and strengthen the dollar.

Brent crude futures declined by 34 cents to $73.05 a barrel by 1219 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude lost 16 cents to $70.42.

The declines gave back Wednesday’s gains on a drop in U.S. crude stocks and the Fed’s expected rate cut of 25 basis points.

Prices weakened after U.S. central bankers issued projections pointing to two quarter-point cuts in 2025 on concern over rising inflation. That was half a point less than they had flagged in September.

“The bottom line for oil is the longer the Fed stays on pause, the stronger the U.S. dollar. This tends to generate headwinds for commodities like oil,” said Harry Tchilinguirian at Onyx Capital Group.

A stronger dollar makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive while higher interest rates weigh on economic growth, potentially reducing demand for oil.

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“The demand-supply balance going into 2025 continues to look unfavourable and predictions of more than 1.0 million bpd demand growth in 2025 look stretched in our opinion. Even if OPEC+ continues to withhold production, the market may still be in surplus,” said Suvro Sarkar, DBS Bank energy sector team leader.

Though demand in the first half of December rose year on year, volumes remained lower than expected by some analysts.

JP Morgan analysts said that global oil demand growth for December so far was 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) less than it had expected, adding that global demand this year has risen by 200,000 bpd less than it had forecast in November 2023.

Official data from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed U.S. crude stocks fell by 934,000 barrels in the week to Dec. 13. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a drawdown of 1.6 million barrels.

While the decline was less than expected, the market found support from last week’s rise in U.S. crude exports by 1.8 million bpd to 4.89 million bpd.