As America Votes, an Anxious World Makes Plans

America may be looking a little frail of late, with polarization at home and multiplying challenges to its authority from allies and foes alike.

There’s still a lot riding on the outcome of the US presidential election for the world, not just in terms of political relations and the balance of trade, but in existential matters of defense and security.

It explains why foreign capitals have rarely been so open in stating their preferences, for Kamala Harris as a proxy for the continuation of Democratic President Joe Biden’s policies, or for the return of Republican Donald Trump to the White House. They’ve also been making preparations accordingly.

Among those watching most keenly will be Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, whose defense against Russia’s invasion is at a tipping point.

Trump’s assertion that he’d end the war immediately raises the prospect of US weapon supplies being throttled, potentially forcing Ukraine to make territorial concessions. While Harris has voiced support for Kyiv, she’d likely face growing skepticism in Congress for major additional funding.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has defied Biden over a cease-fire in Gaza, even while receiving US arms. Here, Trump looks more like the continuity candidate whereas Harris has suggested she’d apply more pressure to limit the conflict’s humanitarian cost.

America’s economy remains the world’s largest, and both Biden and Trump have shown they’re willing to weaponize it.

Trump’s proposed tariffs of up to 20% on imports and levies as high as 60% on trade with China would upend the global order. Harris would likely maintain export controls on advanced technology to China, though she’ll face calls to squeeze Beijing harder, with further economic fallout.

With US democracy under real strain, the American century is showing signs of winding down. Regardless, the world will feel the impact of its political decisions for a long time yet.