Soaring production from shale, wind and solar helped create the biggest glut since at least 1949. Yet demand may soon catch up.

Energy scarcely got a look-in during last week’s US presidential debate, but its brief mention is still worth a closer look.
In response to a question about the events of Jan. 6, 2021, former President Donald Trump sought to contrast the twilight of his term with the current administration. “On January 6th, we were energy independent,” he said.
To be clear, the US isn’t truly, technically energy independent now, nor was it then. While the world’s largest economy is the biggest oil producer and a major exporter, it continues to import certain types of crude. Some refineries weren’t built to handle the kind of supplies produced in the shale patch.
Plus, American nuclear reactors still use Russian uranium.
But such qualifications are largely beside the point. Government data shows that under both presidents, the nation has enjoyed the kind of energy self-reliance that most other countries can only dream of.
In 2020 under Trump, the US became a net exporter of petroleum for the first time in more than a half-century, thanks to a decade of growth from the shale boom.
Wind and solar generation also climbed in recent years amid improving economics, better technology and favorable policy initiatives.
US Energy Surplus
Primary energy production and consumption measured in quadrillion British thermal units
That trend continued under Biden and helped the country set a record for total primary energy production last year, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Combined output from fossil fuels, nuclear and renewables rose 4% to almost 103 quadrillion British thermal units, the agency reported last week.
Not only was production at a record, but so was the margin by which it exceeded consumption. At 9 quadrillion BTU, the surplus was higher than at any period in data going back to 1949.
How long that glut can last is unclear. Tax incentives may help accelerate the installation of more renewables capacity. American crude production keeps rising, but investors are pressing for slower growth in order to reap dividends.
And after years of little change, US power demand is forecast to increase dramatically as more data centers come online to cope with the artificial-intelligence boom.
How the nation will best meet the challenge of rising energy consumption is surely worth debating.
–David Wethe, Bloomberg News
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