Republicans Struggle to Diverge from Bidenomics & Energy Independence

WASHINGTON, Aug 1 (Reuters Breakingviews) – Republicans with ambitions to move into the White House have a love-hate relationship with Bidenomics. Former occupant Donald Trump has called President Joe Biden’s economic record a “disaster,” while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis recently emphasized an “economic malaise” under the sitting U.S. commander-in-chief. At the same time, both challengers are echoing some of the incumbent’s most ambitious efforts.

DeSantis on Monday unveiled an economic plan, one of the first candidates to do so ahead of the November 2024 election. He laid out a 10-point “Declaration of Economic Independence,” which includes achieving 3% GDP growth, compared to the 2.4% pace in the second quarter, and “reining in” the Federal Reserve, whose interest rate hikes have arguably helped reduce inflation. The list also includes a vague call to reverse the president’s “job-crippling” executive orders and end all support for socially conscious investing. More than 13 million jobs have been added since Biden took office while the unemployment rate stood at a low 3.6% as of June.

Both the DeSantis and Trump campaigns also have touted American “energy independence” as part of their agendas, yet the approaches will likely mirror Biden’s. Fossil-fuel usage has held steady since the 45th president was elected, despite his push for renewables. Crude oil and natural gas account for two-thirds of U.S. energy creation, and crude production has climbed since 2021, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Yet oil and gas are inherently limited, and their prices are vulnerable to global shocks such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Building a more resilient energy supply therefore relies on solar, wind and other sources, and Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act devotes nearly $400 billion to such projects. A continued push for true “energy independence” probably would look more like Biden’s strategy than anything else.

So too would any positions on Beijing and manufacturing. DeSantis calls for “taking back control” of the economy from China, while Trump has said his trade policies will end Chinese imports of essential goods. Both sound a lot like “de-risking,” the Biden administration term for its industrial policy. The CHIPS Act the president signed last August includes $77 billion to support a domestic semiconductor industry. Republican proposals are more aggressive, but replacing Chinese production will almost surely require a similar framework as Biden’s.

There may be Republican rhetoric that appeals to voters, but much of Bidenomics will probably be around for a while.

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(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis on July 31 unveiled a platform he branded a “Declaration of Economic Independence” as part of his presidential campaign during a speech in New Hampshire. The agenda includes 10 core tenets, including greater independence from China, energy independence and promoting domestic investment.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has promoted similar policies during his election run. He called for “aggressive new restrictions” on Chinese ownership of U.S. infrastructure in a Jan. 18 campaign video and emphasized domestic energy independence in a Feb. 9 video.