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The IEA’s Energy Crystal Ball Says… 

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These translations are done via Google Translate

Courtesy of ENERGYminute  

See more articles and infographics from ENERGYminute HERE

Image Courtesy of Psychology Today

On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency released their World Energy Outlook 2021 report discussing—you guessed it—three potential future global energy scenarios.

The report was dropped ahead of the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) like a Kanye West listening party. The report outlines three future scenarios.

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Net Zero by 2050 Scenario:

  • Backdrop: Net-zero global emissions by 2050 and a stabilized global average temperature rise of 1.5 degrees.
    Implications: Coal and oil peak this year, while natural gas continues to grow before returning back to today’s levels by 2030. Wind and solar take off like William Shatner in a Jeff Bezos spaceship.

Stated Policies Scenario:

  • Backdrop: Only existing and under-development policies are put in place. The result leaves emissions around current levels and the global average temperature increases by 2.6 degrees.
    Implications: An accelerated reduction in energy emissions but offset by emissions growth in industries such as cement, steel, and trucking—mainly from emerging markets.

Announced Pledges Scenario:

  • Backdrop: In the lead up to COP26, several countries have made new pledges to be net zero by 2050. If all of these pledges, in addition to the existing and in-development policies, were put in place, you would have this scenario. Consequently, the average global temperature rise is held to 2.1 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
    Implication: Low-emitting sources dominate the energy industry by 2030, oil demand peaks in 2025, and emissions fall 40 percent from current levels by 2100.

The report does suggest some slight changes to our current approach as solution including an additional push for clean electrification, a relentless focus on energy efficiency, a broad drive to cut methane emissions from fossil fuel operations, and a big boost to clean energy innovation.

Bottom line: Unfortunately for us but luckily for werewolves, no are silver bullets to be found here. The report paints a clear picture that the current rate of energy transition is far from meeting net zero by 2050 climate goals.

+Read the full report: World Energy Outlook 2021

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