(Bloomberg) Oil rose to a four-week high after an industry report signaled a bigger-than-forecast drop in U.S. crude stockpiles, adding impetus to a rally that’s been driven by a tense standoff between Washington and Tehran.Futures in New York gained as much as 2.3%. The American Petroleum Institute reported that inventories fell by 7.55 million barrels last week, according to people familiar with the data. That would be the biggest decline in more than three months if confirmed by government figures due Wednesday. Gasoline futures jumped in New York after Reuters reported that Philadelphia Energy Solutions is expected to close its refinery, the largest on the U.S. East Coast.Oil has rallied around 15% since the middle of the month as escalating tensions in the Middle East have taken over from the U.S.-China trade war as the main price driver. A meeting between the presidents of the two countries at the G-20 summit in Japan this weekend is generating some optimism that trade talks may resume. Meanwhile, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will decide output levels for the rest of 2019 at a meeting next week.
“This is the market’s reaction to the unexpectedly pronounced fall in U.S. crude-oil stocks,” said Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “Apart from crude-oil stock trends, the focus here is also likely to be on gasoline demand” as the northern hemisphere moves into the peak summer driving season.
West Texas Intermediate for August delivery rose $1, or 1.7%, to $58.83 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:18 a.m. London time. It climbed to $59.13 earlier, the highest intraday level since May 30. The contract rose 7.7% in the three sessions through Monday.
Brent for August settlement advanced 81 cents, or 1.3%, to $65.86 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe Exchange. The global benchmark crude traded at a premium of $7.02 to WTI. The gap was as low as $6.86 earlier, the least since early April.
The API figures for American stockpiles compare with the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey for a 2.87 million-barrel decline. Inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels in the week to June 14, according to Energy Administration data. The U.S. summer driving season typically boosts oil demand and has helped narrow the Brent-WTI spread.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will probably discuss oil-output reductions with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman on the sidelines of the G-20 summit, potentially providing a breakthrough on OPEC+ policy before ministers convene in Vienna. While Saudi Arabia has pushed for an extension of the cuts, Russia — OPEC’s most important ally — has adopted a wait-and-see approach.
The U.S. is said to be willing to suspend the next round of tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese imports while Beijing and Washington prepare to resume trade negotiations, people familiar with the plan said. However, no detailed trade deal is expected at the G-20 summit, according to a senior Trump administration official.
Other oil-market news
OPEC and its allies will extend supply cuts in the second half of the year when they meet next week, according to a Bloomberg survey. All 29 analysts and traders polled predicted that the coalition will prolong their curbs to the end of the year.
Bloomberg oil strategist Julian Lee will hold a live Q&A on OPEC starting 2pm London time/ 9am New York time on Thursday June 27. Click here for details; to submit a question in advance, send to [email protected]
Bank of America Merrill Lynch said a further deterioration in U.S.-China relations could set off a chain of events that would push oil down more than 50% to as low as $30 a barrel.
The U.S. will account for almost a quarter of global oil and gas production by the early 2030s as shale keeps booming, according to the head of Rystad Energy.
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