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Summary
- Gulf members’ output remains far below levels before Iran war
- OPEC+ needs capacity review to decide new production quotas
- Review delayed by uncertainty over future production potential
(Reuters) – OPEC+ agreed to keep oil production targets steady for November at a meeting on Sunday, the producer group said, in line with expectations that further output policy adjustments are unlikely until next year.
Seven core members of the group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia made the decision for November in a brief online meeting on Sunday. The core members are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman.
Gulf OPEC+ producers have been pumping well below output targets in the face of continuing export disruptions from the US-Israeli war on Iran, with exports fluctuating at 60% to 80% of normal levels in recent months.
“The OPEC+ group of seven kept their production ceilings unchanged, in line with market expectations. That said, despite rising flows through the Strait of Hormuz, their output levels remain well below quota,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
“Consequently, the oil market remains tight.”
Oil prices had dropped on Friday after European leaders agreed to US President Donald Trump’s request to release diesel reserves. Even so, Brent crude remains above $100 a barrel, up from about $73 before the Iran war started in late February.
OUTPUT HIKES HAVE BEEN LARGELY ON PAPER THIS YEAR
The Iran war has also delayed the group’s output capacity review — crucial to determine members’ 2027 output quotas — because it has thrown estimates of future production potential into uncertainty, industry sources told Reuters last week.
OPEC+ has been raising output targets for much of 2026 after years of production cuts, but most of the increases stayed on paper because of the Middle East conflict.
The seven core OPEC+ members pumped 25 million barrels per day in August, up 630,000 bpd from July, yet still roughly 5 million bpd below prewar levels in February, OPEC data shows.
The seven hold their next meeting on November 1.
OPEC+ still has about 2 million bpd of output cuts in place covering most members. It needs the result of the capacity review to decide how to distribute increases and any changes to output are unlikely before 2027, sources have said.
A separate OPEC+ ministerial group called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which does not decide policy, also met on Sunday to review the market.
Reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar, Olesya Astakhova and Alex Lawler Writing by Dmitry Zhdannikov Editing by David Goodman
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