Oil Surges More Than 4% as Middle East Tanker Attacks and Gulf Hurricane Threaten Global Supply

EnergyNow Morning Oil Price Report

Report Date & Time: October 8, 2026 – 5:30 a.m. MDT – Using Trading View Prices

See Up-To-Date Prices Here

Summary

• WTI crude is approximately US$92.62 per barrel, up US$4.34, or 4.92%, from Wednesday’s official settlement of US$88.28. Oil is sharply higher as escalating Middle East shipping attacks and hurricane-related production shutdowns in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico renew supply concerns.
• Brent crude is approximately US$104.41 per barrel, up US$4.21, or 4.20%, from Wednesday’s official settlement of US$100.20. The international benchmark is climbing as threats to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz intensify.
• Two major supply threats are driving Thursday’s rally: increased attacks on Middle East tankers and Hurricane Isaias, which has already forced the shutdown of approximately 25% of U.S. Gulf of Mexico offshore oil production. A larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude inventories is adding support. TradingView

Latest Oil Prices

As of approximately 5:30 a.m. MDT Thursday, the latest available WTI indication was US$92.62 per barrel, compared with Wednesday’s official settlement of $88.28. That represents an increase of US$4.34, or 4.92%.

Brent was approximately US$104.41 per barrel, compared with Wednesday’s $100.20 settlement, putting the international benchmark higher by US$4.21, or 4.20%.

Both benchmarks are therefore sharply higher this morning. These are the latest displayed market indications retrieved during report preparation; rapidly changing prices may differ from exchange quotes at the exact report timestamp. TradingView

There is no material contract-roll distortion in today’s comparison. WTI remains on the November 2026 contract, while Brent is on the December 2026 contract. Each current price is compared with Wednesday’s settlement for the corresponding contract.

The Brent-WTI premium is approximately US$11.79 per barrel.

Why Oil Is Moving

The immediate bullish influence is escalating concern about the security of Middle Eastern oil shipments.

Attacks against tankers operating in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz have increased substantially. According to Reuters, attacks on vessels transiting the strait reached their highest frequency since the conflict began earlier this year.

Although crude exports from Middle Eastern producers have recovered significantly in recent weeks, the increase in shipping attacks is raising questions about whether those volumes can be maintained.

The second major development is Hurricane Isaias, which is approaching important offshore oil-producing areas in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

As of Wednesday, offshore operators had shut approximately 25.08% of Gulf oil production and 16.37% of natural gas production in preparation for the storm.

The disruptions are particularly important because the Gulf accounts for approximately 15% of total U.S. crude production.

Key Market Risks or Catalysts

Middle East shipping security: Further attacks on tankers or energy infrastructure could disrupt crude deliveries and increase shipping costs. Renewed military escalation involving Iran remains another significant market risk.

U.S. hurricane disruptions: Offshore production shutdowns could expand depending on the storm’s track and intensity. Refining operations and Gulf Coast export facilities may also face disruptions.

U.S. crude inventories: The latest Energy Information Administration report showed American commercial crude inventories declined by 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels for the week ending October 2. Analysts had expected inventories to increase by approximately 1.7 million barrels. The Wall Street Journal

Emergency petroleum releases: The International Energy Agency has agreed to accelerate previously announced emergency stock releases, prioritizing diesel supplies.

Approximately 100 million barrels could reach the market more quickly, although the figure does not necessarily represent an entirely new release commitment. MarketScreener

Bottom Line

Oil has reversed Wednesday’s decline with a substantial rally.

WTI is back above $92 while Brent has climbed above $104, reflecting renewed concerns about the reliability of global petroleum supplies.

The market is now confronting two immediate risks: deteriorating Middle East shipping security and hurricane-related disruptions to American production.

For Canadian producers, stronger WTI prices provide some relief following recent declines. However, the widening Western Canadian Select discount continues to limit how much of that improvement reaches Canadian heavy-oil producers.

The key question is whether these supply disruptions prove temporary or develop into more sustained constraints on global oil availability.

Western Canadian Select (WCS)

The latest available WCS physical-market assessment is from Wednesday, October 7.

WCS for November delivery at Hardisty settled at a US$25.15-per-barrel discount to WTI, according to a Calgary brokerage assessment reported by Reuters.

Using Wednesday’s official WTI settlement of US$88.28 per barrel, that implies an approximate outright WCS value of US$63.13 per barrel. This is an indicative same-trading-day calculation, not a separately verified simultaneous outright WCS quote.

On Tuesday, October 6, the WCS discount was US$24.95 per barrel.

The differential therefore widened by US$0.20 per barrel, from $24.95 to $25.15.

The discount remains at levels not seen since 2023.

The widening reflects several pressures on Canadian heavy crude, including record global tanker freight costs, strong oil sands production, limited spare capacity on Canadian export pipelines and increased competition from Venezuelan heavy crude entering the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Important timing distinction: Wednesday’s WCS assessment and WTI settlement are from the same trading day, but their assessment times and methodologies may differ. The implied $63.13 WCS value should not be treated as an exact simultaneous physical-market quote.

Thursday morning’s approximately $92.62 WTI futures price must not be combined with Wednesday’s WCS value to calculate a new differential. Thursday’s Canadian physical-market assessment has not yet been established.

Who Watches the WCS Price

Oil sands producers realize WCS-linked prices on unhedged production, and their capital plans key off the differential outlook. US Midwest and Gulf Coast refiners with coking capacity buy WCS as feedstock and treat the differential as their margin opportunity. The Alberta government forecasts royalty and tax revenue directly off WCS — a one-dollar move in the differential is worth hundreds of millions of dollars to the provincial budget over a fiscal year. And diluent demand links WCS volumes back to condensate markets.