U.S. Gas Supply Growth Could Outpace LNG Demand Through 2027

Haynesville activity and Permian expansion prompt EIR to lower its 2027 Henry Hub forecast to $3.25/MMBtu

CALGARY, Alberta (Sep. 23, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics platform, is releasing a series of reports as part of its basin-level research evaluating inventory, economics and development trends across key North American oil and gas basins. Building on EIR’s broader analysis of North American drilling inventory and resource life, the series examines how those trends are unfolding at the basin level and translating into future production.

The latest research points to an emerging U.S. natural gas supply imbalance from accelerating Haynesville activity and expanding Permian associated gas volumes. This is expected to add supply ahead of the full ramp-up in LNG demand, creating a period from late 2026 through 2027 when the domestic market may need to absorb additional gas. As a result, EIR has lowered its 2027 Henry Hub price forecast to $3.25/MMBtu from $3.50/MMBtu.

EIR estimates the near-term supply additions will exceed incremental LNG demand by roughly 1.3 Bcf/d by year-end 2027, leaving the domestic market to absorb the difference. Beyond that period, the outlook becomes more balanced as LNG demand grows and absorbs additional Haynesville and Permian supply.

“Haynesville and Permian supply is growing ahead of LNG demand and above our initial expectations. We expect supply additions to exceed incremental LNG demand by the end of 2027, resulting in an oversupplied domestic market and a lower Henry Hub price of $3.25,” said Jimmy McNamara, a principal analyst at EIR.

Key takeaways:

EIR lowered its 2027 Henry Hub forecast to $3.25/MMBtu from $3.50/MMBtu as stronger Haynesville activity and increased Permian takeaway capacity add near-term supply pressure.
Haynesville production is forecast to reach 18.4 Bcf/d by year-end 2027, with incremental supply expected from July 2026 through exit-2027.
Permian gas infrastructure is expected to add 4.7 Bcf/d of takeaway capacity in 4Q26-1Q27, allowing more associated gas to reach Gulf Coast and North Texas markets.
EIR estimates near-term Haynesville production growth and Permian egress additions will exceed incremental LNG demand by year-end 2027, requiring additional domestic-market absorption.
By exit-2030, EIR forecasts approximately 4 Bcf/d of Haynesville production growth and approximately 10 Bcf/d of additional Permian dry gas production.

EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE™.

Full copies of EIR research reports cannot be distributed to members of the media. Journalists interested in learning more about this analysis are encouraged to use the Request Media Interview button below to schedule a time to meet with one of our expert analysts, who can provide context, insight, and deeper discussion of the findings.