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Oil Extends Pullback as Saudi Export Workaround Eases Supply Fears, but WTI Holds Above $100


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EnergyNow Morning Oil Price Report

Report Date & Time: September 17, 2026 – 5:32 a.m. MDT – Using Trading View Prices

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Summary

  • WTI crude is approximately US$101.34 per barrel, down US$1.09, or 1.06%, from Wednesday’s official US$102.43 settlement. Oil is lower for a second session as additional Saudi crude shipments through Oman and expectations for a faster repair of Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline ease immediate supply fears.
  • Brent crude is approximately US$104.33 per barrel, down US$1.50, or 1.42%, from Wednesday’s US$105.83 settlement. Brent remains comfortably above $100, however, reflecting continuing risks around the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi infrastructure and the broader Middle East conflict.
  • The crude market is easing, but refined fuels remain extremely tight. European gasoil and U.S. ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures have reached record levels, while additional Ukrainian attacks have disrupted Russian refining capacity.

Latest Oil Prices

As of approximately 5:32 a.m. MDT Thursday, WTI was trading near US$101.34 per barrel, compared with Wednesday’s official US$102.43 settlement. That puts the U.S. benchmark US$1.09 lower, or 1.06%, making today’s direction clearly down.

Brent was approximately US$104.33 per barrel, versus Wednesday’s settlement of US$105.83, representing a decline of US$1.50, or 1.42%.

Wednesday itself produced a substantial correction: Brent fell $2.92, or 2.7%, while WTI dropped $3.40, or 3.2%, after both benchmarks had reached roughly four-month highs earlier in the week.

The active WTI front month remains the October 2026 contract, so there is no material contract-roll distortion in the day-over-day WTI comparison.

Why Oil Is Moving

The biggest bearish development is Saudi Arabia’s ability to find alternative ways to keep crude moving despite damage to its East-West Pipeline and suspended loadings at Yanbu.

Saudi Arabia is offering additional crude to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers off Sohar, Oman, helping offset some lost Red Sea export capacity. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has also indicated that crude could begin flowing again through the damaged East-West Pipeline within days.

That has reduced fears that a prolonged pipeline outage could remove as much as 4% of global oil supply.

U.S. inventory data added downward pressure. Commercial crude stocks declined by only about 640,000 barrels last week, significantly less than the 1.62-million-barrel draw analysts expected. Gasoline and distillate inventories both increased.

Key Market Risks or Catalysts

The most important upside risk remains the Strait of Hormuz. Visible vessel traffic remained deeply depressed this week, with only four vessels recorded Tuesday versus a recent 10-day average of 18. Before the conflict, roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies moved through the Strait.

Saudi pipeline repairs therefore remain crucial. Two pumping stations were damaged in last week’s attack, and Reuters reports the precise repair timetable remains unclear despite optimism that some flows could return relatively quickly.

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The second major issue is diesel. European gasoil and U.S. ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures recently settled at record highs as Middle Eastern disruptions combine with reduced Russian refinery output. Another Ukrainian drone attack damaged a Russian refinery at Yaroslavl on Thursday.

Goldman Sachs says soaring diesel margins are encouraging refiners to prioritize diesel production over gasoline. That means refined-product tightness could increasingly become a larger market issue than crude availability itself.

Higher interest rates add a potential demand-side headwind after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate Wednesday, strengthening the dollar and increasing concerns about slower economic growth.

Bottom Line

Oil is undergoing a second day of consolidation after the powerful run toward $110 Brent earlier this week.

Saudi Arabia’s Oman export workaround and prospects for quicker pipeline repairs have reduced the immediate probability of a severe supply shortage, while softer U.S. inventory data are providing additional downward pressure.

But WTI remains above $100 and Brent above $104 because the underlying geopolitical problem is unresolved. Hormuz traffic remains restricted, Saudi infrastructure is damaged and global diesel markets are exceptionally tight.

A sustained move below $100 WTI will likely require tangible evidence that Saudi export capacity and Gulf shipping are returning toward normal.

Western Canadian Select (WCS)

A sufficiently reliable Wednesday Hardisty WCS physical-market settlement was not publicly available at publication time, so this report will not combine an older WCS assessment with Thursday morning’s live WTI quote and present it as a current same-time spread.

The latest verified physical-market differential available from earlier this week was US$17.35 per barrel below WTI for October-delivery WCS at Hardisty. Using the corresponding Monday WTI settlement of US$101.39, that implied a WCS price of approximately US$84.04 per barrel.

The previous verified differential was US$16.75 below WTI, meaning the latest confirmed spread had widened by US$0.60 per barrel.

Thursday morning WTI is now around US$101.34, but applying the older WCS differential mechanically to today’s WTI would create an asynchronous estimate rather than a verified physical-market price. The latest WCS price and spread should therefore be treated as delayed until a newer Hardisty assessment is available.

Who Watches the WCS Price

Oil sands producers realize WCS-linked prices on unhedged production, and their capital plans key off the differential outlook. US Midwest and Gulf Coast refiners with coking capacity buy WCS as feedstock and treat the differential as their margin opportunity. The Alberta government forecasts royalty and tax revenue directly off WCS — a one-dollar move in the differential is worth hundreds of millions of dollars to the provincial budget over a fiscal year. And diluent demand links WCS volumes back to condensate markets.

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