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EnergyNow Morning Oil Price Report
Report Date & Time: September 15, 2026 – 5:31 a.m. MDT – Using Trading View Prices
Summary
- WTI crude is approximately US$103.53 per barrel, up US$2.14, or 2.11%, from Monday’s official US$101.39 settlement. Oil is firmly higher as the continuing shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline raises concerns that additional Middle East supply could be stranded.
- Brent crude is approximately US$107.35 per barrel, up US$1.67, or 1.58%, from Monday’s US$105.68 settlement. The international benchmark remains comfortably above $100 as traders price in the possibility of a prolonged Saudi pipeline outage and further attacks on regional infrastructure.
- Physical supply risks are intensifying: commodity-vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to only four ships Monday, Saudi Arabia’s bypass pipeline remains offline, and half of Russia’s six largest diesel-producing refineries have reduced or halted output following drone attacks.
Latest Oil Prices
At approximately 5:31 a.m. MDT Tuesday, WTI was trading around US$103.53 per barrel, versus Monday’s official settlement of US$101.39. That represents an increase of US$2.14, or approximately 2.11%.
Brent was approximately US$107.35, compared with Monday’s US$105.68 settlement, putting the international benchmark US$1.67 higher, or 1.58%. Both benchmarks are therefore clearly up, rather than relatively flat, in Tuesday trading.
The active WTI front-month remains the October 2026 contract, while Brent is trading the November 2026 contract. Traders should keep the different delivery months in mind when comparing the benchmarks, although there is no major rollover distortion in today’s day-over-day comparisons.
Why Oil Is Moving
The primary driver remains Saudi Arabia and the continuing outage of its critical East-West Pipeline.
The pipeline normally allows Saudi crude to reach the Red Sea and bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Damage from last week’s attack has left it offline, threatening as much as 4% of global oil supply if the disruption persists. Estimates for restoring the system range from relatively quickly to as long as eight weeks.
Saudi Arabia could also exhaust crude available for export from storage at Yanbu within days if pipeline flows are not restored. Goldman Sachs said a prolonged shutdown, combined with restricted Hormuz flows, increases the probability of Brent moving above $120 per barrel.
The Strait of Hormuz itself remains severely constrained. Preliminary Kpler data showed commodity-vessel traffic fell to just four vessels Monday from 10 Sunday. Before the conflict, roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies moved through the Strait.
Key Market Risks or Catalysts
The first catalyst is Saudi pipeline repairs. A rapid restart could remove some of the current risk premium; an outage lasting several weeks could tighten global crude availability considerably.
The second is continued escalation by the Houthis. The Iran-aligned group launched dozens of missiles and drones against Saudi targets Monday, while Gulf Arab governments postponed planned discussions with Iran.
Another important development is Russia. Reuters reports that three of Russia’s six largest diesel-producing refineries have substantially reduced or completely halted output this month following drone damage, adding pressure to already tight global refined-product markets.
Markets will also watch Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision. Higher oil prices have intensified inflation concerns, and expectations of tighter monetary policy could eventually weigh on economic activity and petroleum demand.
Bottom Line
Oil remains in a strongly bullish but extremely volatile market.
WTI above $103 and Brent above $107 show that traders are assigning an increasingly large premium to Middle East supply security. The combination of an offline Saudi bypass pipeline, dramatically reduced Hormuz traffic and additional attacks on regional infrastructure leaves little room for another significant disruption.
A quick Saudi pipeline restart could trigger a correction. But if the outage persists and Hormuz traffic remains depressed, $110 Brent could become the market’s next major test, with considerably higher prices possible under a prolonged-disruption scenario.
Western Canadian Select (WCS)
Western Canadian Select for October delivery at Hardisty settled Monday at a US$17.35-per-barrel discount to WTI, according to CalRock. With Monday WTI settling at US$101.39, that implies a WCS value of approximately US$84.04 per barrel.
On Friday, the WCS differential was US$16.75 below WTI. The discount therefore widened by US$0.60 per barrel Monday. The move was linked to the shutdown of Exxon Mobil‘s 264,000-barrel-per-day Joliet, Illinois refinery, an important processor of heavy Canadian crude. The refinery was shut following a power outage and is expected to work toward normal operations by the end of this week.
For price context, Friday WTI settled at US$100.05, implying WCS of approximately US$83.30 using Friday’s $16.75 differential. Monday’s implied WCS price therefore increased about US$0.74 per barrel, even as its discount to WTI widened.
The WCS figures are Monday’s physical-market settlement, while Tuesday WTI is already trading above $103. They should therefore not be combined to create a same-time Tuesday differential. A fresh Tuesday WCS settlement will become available later in the trading day.
Who Watches the WCS Price
Oil sands producers realize WCS-linked prices on unhedged production, and their capital plans key off the differential outlook. US Midwest and Gulf Coast refiners with coking capacity buy WCS as feedstock and treat the differential as their margin opportunity. The Alberta government forecasts royalty and tax revenue directly off WCS — a one-dollar move in the differential is worth hundreds of millions of dollars to the provincial budget over a fiscal year. And diluent demand links WCS volumes back to condensate markets.
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