Goldman Lowers Oil Price Forecasts on Deal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

 

Goldman Sachs lowered its fourth-quarter Brent crude oil price forecast to $80 from $90 and cut its 2027 average estimate to $75 from $80, after the U.S. and Iran signed a preliminary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysts at the investment bank said in a research note released late on Monday they now assume that Gulf exports normalise to pre-war levels by the end of July versus the end of August expected previously.

Oil prices eased on Tuesday, having slipped nearly 5% to their lowest since March 10 after U.S. President Donald Trump said a memorandum of understanding was signed to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which had closed the Strait of Hormuz.

A fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas had passed through the strait before, and its closure caused about 14 million barrels per day of output to be shut in.

Brent crude futures were down 0.3% to $82.94 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate eased 0.1% to $80.66 a barrel as of 0314 GMT.

Goldman expects WTI to average $75 in the last quarter this year and $70 in 2027.29dk2902l

The bank also sees a somewhat firmer demand recovery in the second half of 2026 and into 2027 on improved affordability.

Risks to the outlook for Middle East oil supply are two-sided, Goldman said, noting that normalisation in oil exports from Gulf producers to their pre-war level may be achieved with a 12 million-barrel-per-day increase in Hormuz flows from current levels.

In addition, Saudi Arabia and the UAE may boost output more aggressively in response to low OECD commercial stocks, while Iran could exceed pre-war production levels if sanctions are eased.

However, a potential resumption in regional hostilities, strikes on ships might keep exports and production at low levels for longer, while clearing any potential mines might require significant time, the analysts said.

(Reporting by Noel John and Swati Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Christopher Cushing and Jacqueline Wong)

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