The US-Israel war with Iran is emerging as more than a humanitarian crisis, one that’s left thousands of civilians dead and millions displaced. On this week’s Merryn Talks Money, Cambridge University professor Helen Thompson argues that the fighting also could accelerate a broader geopolitical reset in energy, with consequences for oil, gas and shipping flows extending from the Persian Gulf to Europe and Asia. Even if hostilities ease, she says, assumptions that underpinned global markets for decades—including the reliability of transit routes and the ease of replacing disrupted supply—have been badly shaken.

Thompson says the biggest immediate effects may be felt not only in crude markets, but in refined products and liquefied natural gas, especially for countries reliant on Gulf exports. Europe, and Britain in particular, look vulnerable because of their dependence on imported aviation fuel, diesel and gas, while Asian economies may retain more flexibility through coal and diversified supply. The result, she suggests, is a world of more fragmented pricing, tighter supply and heightened economic risk.

For the UK, the discussion becomes a critique of energy policy as much as geopolitics. Thompson argues Britain has focused too narrowly on electricity while neglecting the broader challenge of energy security, fossil-fuel dependence and electrification. She calls for a more serious review of domestic production, refining capacity, nuclear power and infrastructure, warning that years of market-led complacency have left the country exposed just as energy risk has returned to the center of politics.