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By Reuters
Russia is struggling to fully benefit from the surge in global oil prices from the Middle East war as drone attacks on export infrastructure and bad weather curb its oil exports, according to Reuters estimates based on LSEG data and industry sources.
Asian states including Thailand, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and others expressed interest in Russian oil purchases after the United States issued a month-long waiver to buy oil sourced from Moscow to offset supply shortages caused by the conflict in the Middle East.
Chinese state oil majors also have resumed seeking Russian crude cargoes after a four-month hiatus.
The rise in demand along with the international oil price surge suggests higher earnings for Russia, but Moscow has so far been unable to increase physical oil exports to improve its profits and satisfy rising demand in Asia.
Oil loadings from Russia’s three main western ports — Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk — could fall to as low as 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in March, down from the initial plan of 1.8 million bpd for the month.
Russia’s crude oil and refined product exports declined in February to their lowest since the start of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, the International Energy Agency said last week.
Now, loadings are down even further.
The decline in exports is driven by low loadings from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, which may halve in March from February levels amid regular drone strikes and weather issues, data from LSEG, trade sources and Reuters estimates show. These figures are preliminary and may change during the month.
Late last week, sources told Reuters that oil export and transit flows through Novorossiysk were running up to 10 days behind schedule in March amid persistent storms and drone attacks, one of which halted loadings.
Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Pooja Desai
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