Qatari LNG Shutdown Following U.S. Military Attacks Removes 20% of Global Supply

Asia faces greatest exposure. Loss of 10+ Bcf per day highlights limited supply elasticity

CALGARY, Alberta (Mar. 10, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics platform, is releasing a new analysis examining the global natural gas market implications of a full shutdown of Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) production following recent U.S. military attacks on Iran.

The closure removes approximately 10.2 billion cubic feet per day of LNG supply, representing nearly 20% of global LNG trade, creating one of the largest global gas supply shocks the market has faced since the 2022 Russia Ukraine crisis and sharply increasing price volatility across global gas benchmarks.

The scale of the disruption rivals the most severe gas market shocks of the past decade. Enverus Intelligence® Research compares the Qatari LNG shutdown to the Russia Ukraine crisis, when Europe lost roughly 8 Bcf per day of pipeline gas supply and Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) prices surged from about $15 per million British thermal units in 2021 to an annual average near $40 per million British thermal units in 2022. Early market signals suggest a sharp response, with prices across global gas hubs rising approximately 55% as of March 5, underscoring how quickly LNG markets react to large supply disruptions.

“A disruption of this magnitude exposes how little flexibility exists in global LNG markets,” said Josephine Mills, senior analyst at EIR. “With short run LNG supply elasticity extremely limited, price rather than volume must absorb the adjustment, leaving global gas prices highly vulnerable if the outage is prolonged.”

The analysis highlights how limited short run LNG supply elasticity amplifies gas price risk during major disruptions. With few producers able to materially increase output in the near term, Enverus Intelligence® Research expects global gas prices could roughly double from Enverus Intelligence Research’s pre-war forecast if the Qatar LNG outage persists. The impact is expected to be most acute in Asia, which receives about 80% of Qatar’s LNG exports, while North America could see secondary effects through higher utilization at U.S. LNG export facilities and supportive conditions for Henry Hub natural gas prices as global coal and power markets tighten.

Key takeaways:

The shutdown affects roughly 10.2 Bcf per day of LNG exports, equivalent to about one fifth of global LNG trade, a shock comparable in scale to the loss of Russian pipeline gas to Europe in 2022.
Global LNG markets have limited short run supply elasticity, increasing the risk that benchmark natural gas prices could roughly double if the outage persists beyond the near term.
Asia bears the greatest exposure, receiving about 80% of Qatar’s LNG exports, with several countries relying on Qatari volumes for more than one third of total gas imports.
Elevated international gas prices could incentivize higher utilization at U.S. LNG facilities, potentially adding 1–2 Bcf per day of LNG exports if winter level utilization rates are sustained.
European gas markets face heightened vulnerability due to storage inventories roughly 550 Bcf below the five year average, limiting buffers against further natural gas supply disruption.

This EIR analysis leverages proprietary data and modeling from a variety of products including Enverus Global Research and Enverus AI.