International Upstream M&A Stuck at Historic Low

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Lack of attractive projects for sale keeps deal activity outside the U.S. and Canada at $18B, even as Latin America heats up

CALGARY, Alberta (Mar. 11, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics platform, has released an International M&A Review examining how global resource scarcity is reshaping upstream deal activity outside the U.S. and Canada.

International upstream mergers and acquisitions remained subdued for the second year, totaling $18 billion in 2025, essentially flat year over year and well off the historical annual average of $60 billion. Limited transactable high-quality resource and lower oil prices in 2025 are factors constraining deal flow. Despite subdued activity, select regions including Latin America continued to attract buyers.

“International M&A is being shaped less by appetite and more by availability,” said Andrew Dittmar, principal analyst at Enverus Intelligence® Research. “With opportunities to buy into high-quality and scalable development projects scarce, majors have pulled back significantly from the M&A market and focused on organic expansion. Independent and private buyers have stepped in to acquire the mature assets and smaller interests these firms are meanwhile shedding.”

Latin America accounted for half of announced international deal value in 2025, led by continued consolidation in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale and ongoing portfolio repositioning in Brazil. Argentina recorded its most active year for upstream M&A since 2014 as regional specialists expanded positions following exits by international oil companies. Despite economic inventory, the scale of the interests held by departing IOCs were likely viewed as too small for a core holding in their global portfolios. In Brazil, majors and national oil companies continued to divest mature offshore assets to domestic operators while selectively increasing exposure to high-quality deepwater developments. Africa also remained a meaningful contributor to global activity, often involving E&Ps cycling out of mature assets to fund higher impact development programs in the Atlantic Margin.

Since early 2024, public independents and private E&Ps like key Vaca Muerta consolidator Vista Energy have accounted for more than 70% of acquisition value internationally. Rare examples of majors stepping into deal markets during the last few years include Chevron’s purchase of Hess in 2023, which focused on its Guyana interests and TotalEnergies asset swap in Namibia’s Orange Basin late last year.

Private equity participation in non-North American upstream M&A has also retreated with European investors pivoting toward power and low-carbon investments. That dynamic has further concentrated international dealmaking among regionally focused operators. A possible return of private equity money could come from U.S. based firms pursuing deals abroad as attractive acquisition opportunities domestically have dwindled and high competition raises asset prices.

Valuation metrics disclosed a two-speed market where weaker near-term crude pricing during 2025 and more deals focused on mature assets or situations involving distressed sellers reduced production and cash flow metrics. That was particularly true for oil-weighted assets. Buyers have been cautious about near-term cash flow quality, focusing closely on operating costs and end-of-life liabilities.

At the same time, reserve-based valuations have shown greater resilience. Despite wide dispersion across regions and asset types, pricing for quality reserves has generally held up better than flowing production metrics would suggest. This highlights a market that continues to value duration and development optionality, even as it discounts late-life barrels.

Looking forward, international upstream M&A is likely to remain subdued unless additional development-stage resources come to market through farm-downs, partial stake sales or broader portfolio reshaping. Regulatory clarity will be a key swing factor. Jurisdictions that improve fiscal stability, streamline approvals and provide greater certainty around transferability are more likely to convert policy reform into transactions and additional invested capital.

The recent geopolitical-driven run-up in oil prices has also injected both potential momentum and volatility into the market. Higher crude prices improve near-term cash flow to fund M&A and make a wider range of assets economically attractive as acquisition targets. However, price uncertainty can widen bid-ask spreads and lead to a downturn in transactions until stability returns.

“The current injection of massive supply uncertainty into crude markets complicates negotiations by widening the bid-ask spread,” said Dittmar. “That is particularly true in the current market, where the duration of supply disruptions and longer-term impact on crude is opaque. But if higher prices prove durable it will cause a resurgence of interest in expanding global supply, unlocking more development projects and broadening buyer appetite. That ultimately supports stronger and more sustained deal flow.”

This EIR analysis leverages proprietary data and modeling from a variety of products including Enverus PRISM®, Enverus Oil & Gas M&A Analytics and Enverus AI.