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March 4 (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs raised on Wednesday its second-quarter 2026 average price forecast for Brent crude oil by $10 to $76 per barrel and for WTI by $9 to $71.
These forecasts assume that low oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz will lead to large declines in OECD inventories and Middle East oil production in March, according to the bank’s note.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow channel linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, is a critical global energy chokepoint, handling about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.
Goldman said its forecasts remain heavily tilted to the upside, with risks including a longer‑than‑expected disruption to exports through the Strait of Hormuz and potential damage at oil production facilities.
“If Hormuz volumes were to remain flat for 5 additional weeks, Brent prices would likely reach $100, a level associated with larger demand destruction to prevent inventories from falling to critically low levels,” it said in a note.
Brent crude futures were near $82.57 a barrel by 0408 GMT, after closing at its highest since January 2025 on Tuesday.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose to $75.28, after settling at its highest since June. Both rose by around 5% or more in the past two sessions.
Goldman sees a downside risk to prices from a faster normalization in Hormuz flows.
The bank also revised its fourth-quarter 2026 forecasts for Brent and WTI to $66 and $62, respectively, and for 2027 to $70 and $66, respectively.
Reporting by Pablo Sinha; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Christian Schmollinger
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