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Most of the growth came from shipping crude oil to Europe.
By Gary Kean
Newfoundland and Labrador outpaced other provinces in sending a larger share of exports to non-U.S. markets in 2025. However, that does not mean it has diversified trading partners.
According to a recent TD Economics report on the shifting nature of goods exported from Canada, year over year to November, Newfoundland and Labrador saw an increase of more than 30 per cent in the value of non-U.S. exports.
Ontario and Alberta were next. Both saw the value of exports to non-American destinations rise by around 25 per cent, with Ontario having a slight edge.
The report found that commodities-producing provinces had the biggest gains.
CRUDE OIL
Most of Newfoundland and Labrador’s growth throughout 2025 came from shipping crude oil to Europe. According to Statistics Canada, the province exported roughly $6.77 billion worth of oil to other countries in the first 11 months of 2025. Just over 66 per cent went to countries other than the U.S, including Netherlands ($1.84 billion), United Kingdom ($931 million) and Germany ($872 million).
Shipments of crude to China accounted for almost all of Alberta’s gains. From December 2024 to the end of November 2025, the value of oil shipments from Alberta to China was about $5.4 billion, a provincial spokesman said, adding the average export volume from Alberta to China for this time period was about 170 thousand barrels per day.
Sending gold to the United Kingdom – fueled by record-high prices – drove non-U.S. exports of almost $14 billion in Ontario.
“While this was a welcome boost to income for these provinces, blunting the narrative somewhat was the lack of export diversification … Diversification has largely meant selling more of existing products to existing partners rather than building new export relationships,” the report explained.
GAINS DID NOT OFFSET EXPORTS TO U.S.
While the value of Canadian exports to the rest of the world was up $24.1 billion through November, it was still down slightly overall from the previous year. And any gain did not offset Canadian exports to the U.S. being down $25.1 billion, even though 89 per cent of the items still crossing the border were exempt from tariffs.
Volumes of overall Canadian exports were 6.9 per cent lower to November, but values were up due to factors such as high gold prices and a surge in shipments to the U.S. earlier in the year to get a head of tariffs.
Even though, for instance, the value of Newfoundland and Labrador oil shipped to destinations other than the States was higher in 2025, the overall volume of oil exported was relatively flat.
“You’re getting a perfect offset there, meaning that shipments going from Newfoundland to the U.S. are falling and that’s been perfectly offset by shipments to the rest of the world, particularly the Netherlands,” said Rishi Sondhi, an economist with TD who co-authored the report.
He said the volatile political situation in the United States, including threatened or imposed tariffs, has much to do with the big spike in Newfoundland and Labrador’s export value numbers outside the United States.
“We’re just shipping less volumes to the U.S. than we are to Europe and it’s hard to think of reasons outside of geopolitical tensions that would account for that differential,” said Sondhi. “It’s a similar story in other oil-exporting provinces, like Alberta. So, I think that story is the correct one.”
MAKING HEADWAY
Seven of 10 provinces made headway in shipping goods to markets outside of the U.S., the report found.
Exporting was more diversified for Quebec, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Each saw moderate gains.
Quebec sent more aluminum to the Netherlands, at strong prices, and more aerospace products to China and Germany.
Saskatchewan increased shipments of potash, uranium, wheat and canola seed to Brazil, Japan, France and Mexico through established relationships.
Manitoba exported more swine, canola seed, pharmaceuticals, and cooking oils, with evidence of a growing market for pork products in countries like Japan and Mexico.
Copper shipments to China led B.C.’s gains.
Nova Scotia was flat in exports to non-U.S. partners.
New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island saw declines.
“Moving forward,” the report said, “healthy U.S. growth, some additional clarity on the future of CUSMA (Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement), and a push to develop trade relations with new partners could continue to shift the picture in the coming months and years.”
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