Fast‑Track Interconnection Could Lift U.S. Power Market Reserve Margins to 24% by 2030

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CALGARY, Alberta (Feb. 25, 2026) Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy‑dedicated SaaS company that leverages generative AI across its solutions, released a new analysis examining how recently approved fast-track interconnection processes are reshaping U.S. power market reliability across the PJM, Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) and Southwest Power Pool (SPP) regions through 2030.

EIR finds that accelerated interconnection programs could significantly improve regional reserve margins by 2030, moving all three markets toward stronger supply conditions while increasing the risk of oversupply, particularly if projected electricity load growth falls short of forecasts. Natural gas generation accounts for the majority of fast-tracked capacity additions, comprising roughly 69 percent of cleared resources in PJM and 75 percent in MISO.

“Fast-track interconnection processes are meaningfully improving the grid reliability outlook across several U.S. power markets, but they also raise important questions around long-term market balance,” said Juan Arteaga, associate at EIR.

“If load growth underperforms expectations while firm generation continues moving through accelerated interconnection queues, some regions could shift from capacity shortfalls to oversupply within the decade.”

Key takeaways:

Accelerated interconnection initiatives could lift 2030 reserve margins to approximately 20 percent in PJM, well above today’s levels, if all fast-tracked resources are delivered.
MISO’s reserve margin is projected to improve to 11 percent by 2030, with additional gains possible as future expedited resource cycles move forward.
SPP could shift from an undersupplied power market to oversupplied, with fast-tracked capacity raising its 2030 reserve margin to an estimated 19 percent to 24 percent.
Natural gas dominates fast-tracked generation additions, representing roughly 69 percent in PJM and 75 percent in MISO, reinforcing its role in near-term reliability.
Improved power supply conditions are expected to reduce energy market volatility, creating new challenges for battery storage economics and existing peaker plants as markets become less constrained.