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(Reuters) – U.S. natural gas output will rise to a record high in 2026, while demand will decline, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday.
EIA projected dry gas production will rise from a record 107.4 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 108.8 bcfd in 2026 and 109.7 bcfd in 2027.
The agency also projected domestic gas consumption will decline from a record 91.5 bcfd in 2025 to 90.3 bcfd in 2026 and 90.9 bcfd in 2027.
The January projections for 2026 were higher than EIA’s demand forecast in December of 90.8 bcfd, but lower than its production forecast of 109.1 bcfd.
The agency forecast average U.S. liquefied natural gas exports would rise to 16.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.1 bcfd in 2027, up from a record 15.0 bcfd in 2025.
With power generators expected to burn less coal this year, the EIA projected U.S. coal production would decline from 532.9 million short tons in 2025 to 512.3 million tons in 2026, the lowest since 1964, and 496.9 million tons in 2027, the lowest since 1963.
EIA projected carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels would decline from a three-year high of 4.903 billion metric tons in 2025 to a six-year low of 4.796 billion metric tons in 2026 as oil, coal and gas use decreases, before rising to 4.803 billion metric tons in 2027 as oil and gas use increases.
Reporting by Scott DiSavino, Editing by Franklin Paul and Bill Berkrot
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