Even as solar generation declines in the final weeks of 2025 due to reduced daylight, coal output is unlikely to overtake solar production for the full year as solar farms look set to generate at least 150,000 MWh in December.

Higher solar output versus coal output in Texas will mark a rare highlight for U.S. climate trackers in 2025. Nationally, coal generation has registered a steep climb this year and remains around three times greater than total U.S. solar output.

However, the steep growth of solar power in Texas – the main fossil fuel hub in the U.S. – will likely act as a blueprint for other states where utilities are attempting to boost output from all available sources to keep up with rising power demand.

BANNER YEAR

Greater installed solar capacity in Texas this year – up 24% compared to 2024’s levels, according to data portal Cleanview – has allowed solar power output in Texas to surge by 42% so far this year from a year earlier, LSEG data shows.

Indeed, ERCOT solar production has set new monthly records every month so far in 2025 and averaged 44% growth from the same months in 2024 from January through November.

If solar output in December also posts a 44% gain from a year earlier, this year’s December output total would be roughly 185,000 MWh and would bring full-year solar generation to 2.82 million MWh.

COAL GROWTH

Texas’ solar outperformance of coal generation has occurred even as ERCOT output from coal-fired power plants posted a 10% rise from the same months in 2024, LSEG data shows.

Utilities in Texas – and across the country – have attempted to boost output from nearly all sources this year in order to meet higher energy demand, driven by rising use of artificial intelligence applications and greater overall electricity use.

However, higher coal generation is also a result of widespread cuts to gas-fired power plants in Texas and elsewhere, triggered by a steep climb in natural gas costs.

ERCOT gas-fired power supplies have dropped by around 4% from a year earlier to 7.74 million MWh so far this year, according to LSEG.

With U.S. gas prices currently averaging around 50% more than the 2024 average, additional cuts to gas-fired output can be expected in areas where coal-fired plants are available to make up the output difference.

That means coal-fired output in Texas – which is the country’s top coal power producer – can also be expected to climb further heading into 2026 and result in a strong finish for coal production in the state.

CLEAR CLEAN MOMENTUM

Even with a fresh uptick in coal-fired generation just as solar production falls to annual lows, 2025 will remain a decisive year for solar generation in Texas.

From January to November, solar farms accounted for a record 14% share of the ERCOT generation mix, compared with a 13% share for the state’s coal plants.

This year’s solar share compares to just a 6% share during the same months in 2022, which underscores the speed and scale of the rollout of solar assets across Texas in recent years.