Poland Eyes LNG Buildout to Shape Europe’s Post-Russia Gas Flows

As Europe moves away from Russian gas for good, Poland is aiming to become the main entry point for global LNG into Central and Eastern Europe — a shift that could reshape fuel flows across the region and give its neighbors a more stable alternative to pipeline imports.

The country is leaning into the momentum it built after Gazprom PJSC cut deliveries in 2022, when Poland’s early diversification left it better prepared than many peers. Now, with Europe planning to exit Russian supplies entirely in 2027, Poland is considering new liquefied natural gas infrastructure to transform itself from a self-reliant outlier into a regional gateway.

The operator of its pipeline network, Gaz-System SA, will decide by the first half of next year whether to build another floating LNG import terminal on the Baltic Sea, Chief Executive Officer Slawomir Hinc said in a recent interview, citing “a visible increase in interest in LNG, both in Poland and in other countries in our region.”

The eastern European country already operates an 8.3-billion-cubic-meter terminal in the Baltic port city of Swinoujscie, and is building a floating terminal with 6.1 billion cubic meters of capacity that’s set to be ready in 2028. Both terminals are fully booked by state-controlled oil and gas company Orlen SA, while the goal for the additional one under consideration is to attract other buyers, also from abroad.

While Croatia, Greece and Lithuania have also started staking out an LNG foothold in the region, Poland’s central position in Europe’s gas grid would knit together several key supply routes. For instance, it would allow fuel imported from the US to be stored in vast underground storage sites in Ukraine, or reach landlocked neighbors like Czech Republic, Slovakia or Hungary.

“Poland does have some structural advantages — most importantly, access to the sea,” said Mykhailo Svyshcho, an analyst at ExPro Consulting in Kyiv. “For decades, almost the entire region depended on Russian pipeline gas and made very limited efforts to diversify. Poland, by contrast, kept developing its own infrastructure, and this early start now puts it in a much stronger position.”

The country is already sending US LNG to Ukraine, and Orlen has said it’s ready to boost the transit to over 1 billion cubic meters next year from 600 million cubic meters in 2025. Ukraine also brings in LNG via Lithuania, with the fuel crossing Polish territory — a longer, costlier route that could be streamlined if additional import capacity were available closer.

Talks are also underway with with Slovakia, which is seeking alternatives to Russian gas.

In a feasibility exercise last month, operator Gaz-System said it saw demand from 14 entities to use the potential new terminal, with peak needs exceeding the planned capacity by almost four times. The survey showed almost half of the gas could be exported and that the terminal would need to start operating in 2029 or 2030 to meet demand.

Gaz-System is now in talks with potential users to work out the formula to make the terminal more attractive.

That might be a crucial step for Poland’s LNG ambitions to work. While becoming a key part of Europe’s gas transit route is good for the country’s energy security, Matt Drinkwater, head of European gas at Energy Aspects Ltd., says there are currently fewer benefits for traders.

“Participating in the Polish market is onerous,” Drinkwater said, citing long registration times and strict supply security regulations. “A lot of work needs to be done on the regulatory side to make Poland an attractive hub to traders.”