Oil Steadies as Market Weighs Geopolitical Risks Against Bearish Fundamentals

Summary

U.S. might keep or sell seized Venezuelan oil, says President Trump
Barclays expects oil surplus to shrink next year if Venezuelan exports fall

(Reuters) – Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday as potential sales of Venezuelan crude seized by the United States were countered by heightened supply disruption fears after Ukrainian attacks on Russian vessels and piers.

Brent crude futures rose 6 cents to $62.13 a barrel by 1221 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 2 cents at $58.03.

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Prices had risen by more than 2% on Monday, with Brent registering its biggest daily gain in two months and WTI climbing the most since November 14.

“The market appears to be wrestling between the oversupplied bearish factors and the latest supply concerns from the U.S. blockade reducing Venezuelan loadings and exports, as well as Russia and Ukraine trading blows to vessels and ports late on Monday,” said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that the U.S. might keep or sell the oil it had seized off the coast of Venezuela in recent weeks as part of U.S. measures that include a “blockade” of oil tankers under sanctions entering and leaving the South American country.

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Oil markets are expected to remain well supplied in the first half of 2026, Barclays said in a note dated Monday, but the bank added that the oil surplus will shrink to only 700,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026 and that prolonged disruption could tighten the market further.

Russian forces struck Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odesa late on Monday and damaged port facilities and a ship, in the second attack on the region in less than 24 hours while Ukrainian drone attacks damaged two vessels, two piers and sparked a fire in a village in Russia’s Krasnodar region.

Ukraine has also targeted Russia’s maritime logistics, focusing on shadow-fleet oil tankers that attempt to bypass sanctions on Russia.

Reporting by Seher Dareen in London, Anjana Anil in Bengaluru and Emily Chow in Singapore Editing by David Goodman