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Asia’s imports of liquefied natural gas flatlined in November, putting the top-buying region of the super-chilled fuel on track to record its first annual decline in three years.
Much of the blame for the soft outcome can be laid at the door of China, which may lose its status as the world’s top LNG importer to previous champion Japan.
While China has increased output of domestic natural gas and imports via pipeline from central Asia and Russia, elevated spot prices for LNG that have persisted for much of the year are likely the largest factor in the drop in imports.
Asia imported 22.99 million metric tons of LNG in November, a whisker above the 22.97 million tons in October and slightly higher than the 22.66 million tons in November last year, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.
Imports are expected to rebound in December, with Kpler estimating arrivals of 26.86 million tons, a figure that is likely to be revised higher as more cargoes are assessed.
But even with a strong December, Asia’s LNG imports are expected to drop to around 276 million tons in 2025, down from 287.8 million tons in 2024 and the first annual decline since 2022.
Imports for China this year are estimated at around 64.6 million tons, down from 78.27 million in 2024 and the weakest since 2022, according to Kpler data. That estimate is also under the 65.62 million tons predicted for Japan this year.
Though LNG for delivery to North Asia dropped to $10.90 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in the week ended November 28 from $11.66 the prior week, prices remain high.
They haven’t fallen below $10 per mmBtu since April last year and went as high as $16.10 in February during the northern winter peak demand season.
A spot price above $10 per mmBtu is seen as making LNG uncompetitive against other sources of natural gas in China, meaning that buyers tend to only take contracted volumes.
India, Asia’s fourth-largest LNG importer and another price-sensitive buyer, is also on track for weaker arrivals in 2025, with Kpler estimating 24.68 million tons, down from 26.6 million in 2024.
ROBUST EUROPE
Prices play less of a role in Europe, where LNG imports are being used to replace pipeline natural gas from Russia.
Europe’s imports are forecast to reach at least 123.99 million tons in 2025, which would put them roughly level with the record high years of 2022 and 2023 which both logged around 124.6 million tons.
Europe’s imports were 11.89 million tons in November, the highest since March and up from October’s 10.63 million, according to Kpler.
The United States remains the top supplier to Europe, supplying 6.90 million tons last month, just shy of the record high of 6.95 million tons from March.
U.S. shipments to Asia tell a somewhat different story, with November imports of 1.43 million tons being the lowest since April.
Several Asian countries have pledged to buy more U.S. energy as part of trade deals with the administration of President Donald Trump, but purchases have been slow to ramp up.
But it is worth noting that Kpler expects strong imports of U.S. LNG across Asia in December and January, with arrivals of 1.99 million tons forecast for December, which would then rise to a 14-month high of 2.62 million tons in January.
Included in the imports is a single cargo from the United States to China in December and another for January, the first U.S. cargoes to arrive in China since February this year.
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The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
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