US LNG Exports at Record High Just in Time for Winter Demand

US liquefied natural gas exports are set to hit a record high this month, helping to tame prices in Asia and Europe as winter begins.

The US is expected to ship 10.7 million tons in November, according to predictive ship-tracking data from Kpler. That’s up roughly 40% from the same month last year, the data showed.

The additional supply could push gas prices in Europe and Asia lower over the next few months, even though colder weather will boost consumption of the heating fuel. European gas futures fell to the lowest level in more than a year on Thursday, while prices in Asia, home to the largest importers, are at the lowest level in about a month.

New projects are set to keep lifting US LNG exports for years, with output poised to double by the end of the decade. The Plaquemines facility is currently ramping-up output, while Golden Pass could send its first shipment before the end of winter.

Drivers:

• China’s 30-day moving average for LNG imports was 200k tons on Nov. 26, ~5.7% lower than a year ago, according to ship-tracking data
• European gas storage levels were ~77% full on Nov. 26, compared with the five-year seasonal average of ~88%
• Europe’s 30-day moving average for LNG imports was 243k tons/day on Nov. 26, 50% higher than the five-year seasonal average, according to ship-tracking data
• Estimated flows to all US export terminals were ~18.5 bcf/day on Nov. 26, +8.4% w/w: BNEF