Goldman Sachs Sees Downside Risks to Crude and Refined Product Prices From Potential Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal

(Reuters) – GOLDMAN SACHS:

• Estimate downside risks to crude prices, and especially refined oil product prices, if sanctions on Russia’s oil sector were to be lifted
• Says its base case still assumes a status quo for sanctions on Russian oil, an extension of the recent downward trend in Russia production, and a decline in brent/WTI oil prices to $56/52 in 2026 on strong supply outside of Russia
• Estimates $4-5 of downside to our brent/WTI 2026 price forecast from a potential peace deal, which could support a gradual recovery in Russia production and increase landed oil inventories in the OECD pricing centers if Russian oil on water moderates
• Says the immediate downside to crude prices from a potential deal is modest, in their view, because the market is already pricing in some probability of a deal and because it would likely take time for Russia production to recover

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