Oil Steady After Smaller-Than-Expected OPEC+ Output Hike

Summary

Brent, WTI steady after settling 1% higher previously
OPEC+ to hike November output by 137,000 bpd, less-than-expected
Oversupply outlook weighs slightly on prices

(Reuters) – Oil prices were steady on Tuesday as investors assessed a smaller-than-expected November output hike by OPEC+ against the backdrop of oversupply expectations.

Brent crude futures fell 9 cents, or 0.14%, to $65.38 a barrel by 1007 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude lost 10 cents, or 0.16%, to $61.59.

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Both contracts settled up more than 1% in the previous session after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and some smaller producers, known as OPEC+, decided to increase its collective oil production by 137,000 barrels per day, starting in November.

The move was in contrast to market expectations for a more aggressive reintroduction of supply, a sign that the group remains cautious about increasing its production share in the global oil market amid predictions of a supply surplus in the fourth quarter as well as next year, said ING analysts.

“Brent had fallen by around $5 per barrel last week in response to earlier expectations of a larger supply boost, so this mild rebound seems reasonable,” said Anh Pham, a senior analyst at LSEG.

“For now, the market still appears capable of accommodating the extra volume, and we have yet to see a shift into contango at the front of the curve.”

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OPEC+ did not discuss increasing quotas after November, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Tuesday.

OPEC+ has increased its oil output targets by more than 2.7 million bpd this year, equivalent to about 2.5% of global demand.

Geopolitical factors have kept a floor under prices, with conflict between Russia and Ukraine affecting energy assets and creating uncertainty over Russian crude supply.

Russia’s Kirishi oil refinery halted its most productive distillation unit following a drone attack and subsequent fire on October 4, with recovery likely to take about a month, two industry sources said on Monday.

Reporting by Enes Tunagur in London, Anjana Anil in Bengaluru and Siyi Liu in Singapore; Editing by Kim Coghill and Clarence Fernandez