Oil Glut Will ‘Moderate’ Prices After Recent Gains, Birol Says

By Rong Wei Neo

Oil prices are expected to “moderate” because of ample supply, according to the International Energy Agency.

“I don’t expect a major shake-up in the oil markets thanks to growing production coming from the Americas,” OPEC+’s change in policy to increase output and slowing demand growth, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in an interview with Jennifer Zabasajja on Bloomberg Television. “As a result of all these trends I expect moderate oil prices in the next days and weeks to come.”

Speculation that the US and China will reach a trade deal this week will only provide a “slight boost” to oil prices, barring any other major geopolitical events, he said.

The oil market will be in surplus as output from the “American quintet” — the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina — outpaces the growth in demand, largely driven by China’s pivot away from heavy industry and combustion vehicles, Birol said. The IEA raised its estimate for a record oil glut in 2026 earlier this month.

Crude prices jumped almost 8% last week after fresh US sanctions on Russia’s biggest producers triggered concerns over physical flows. Refiners in India, a major market for Russian oil, said they’d stop buying while some in China also hit the panic button.

— With assistance from Jennifer Zabasajja

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