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OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, has reversed its strategy of output cuts from April and has already raised quotas by about 2.5 million barrels per day.
That increase, which equates to about 2.4% of world demand, was intended to boost market share amid pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump for lower oil prices.
But those increases have failed to significantly dent oil prices, which are trading near $66 a barrel supported by Western sanctions on Russia and Iran, encouraging further oil production increases by rivals such as the United States.
A deal on Sunday to boost output from October – to be discussed at an online meeting of the group’s members due to start at 1230 GMT – would mean OPEC+ would begin to unwind a second tranche of cuts of about 1.65 million bpd more than a year ahead of schedule, after fully unwinding the first tranche since April.
The group will likely agree to raise oil output from October by between 130,000 and 140,000 barrels per day, Iraq’s OPEC delegate Mohammed al-Najjar told reporters on the sidelines of an energy conference in Baghdad.
Two sources familiar with the talks said on Saturday that the group has reached an agreement in principle to raise output by at least 135,000 bpd from October, while a third source said the increase could be bigger at between 200,000 and 350,000 bpd.
At their last meeting in August, OPEC+, which pumps about half of the world’s oil, raised production by 547,000 bpd for September.
Brent crude futures closed at $65.50 a barrel on Friday, down 2.2%, due to a weak U.S. jobs report and expectations of an OPEC+ output hike. This is still up from a 2025 low of near $58 seen in April.
OPEC+’s hikes have fallen short of the pledged amounts because most members are pumping near capacity.
As a result, only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are able to add more barrels into the market, analysts have said and data have shown.
OPEC still has in place two layers of cuts – the 1.65 million bpd cut by eight members, and another 2 million bpd cut by the whole group in place until the end of 2026.
(Reporting by Olesya Astakhova, Alex Lawler, Ahmad Ghaddar and Dmitry Zhdannikov; Editing by Nick Zieminski and David Holmes)
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