OPEC+ May Discuss 2027 Baselines and Agree on July Hike This Week

Summary

Full OPEC+ meeting takes place on Wednesday
Eight OPEC+ members meet on Saturday to decide on July output
Wednesday’s meeting scheduled to begin at 1300 GMT, sources say

(Reuters) – OPEC+ may discuss issues around its baselines for 2027 production at its meeting on Wednesday, two delegates from the group said, while separate talks due on Saturday could agree a further accelerated oil output hike for July.

The group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, has been discussing new baselines – production levels from which each member makes cuts or increases – for the last few years.

Get the Latest US Focused Energy News Delivered to You! It's FREE: Quick Sign-Up Here

Baseline issues are controversial because some members such as the United Arab Emirates and Iraq have increased their oil production capacity, pressing the case for higher quotas, while others such as African members have seen declines.

The 22-member group on Wednesday is likely to ask OPEC headquarters to prepare a mechanism to help establish the baseline assessment for 2027, one of the delegates said. That meeting is not expected to change output policy, OPEC+ sources have said.

On Saturday, the eight OPEC+ members who are in the process of gradually raising output are set to meet and may agree an output hike for July of 411,000 barrels per day, the same as in May and June, the delegates said.

OPEC+ has agreed three layers of output cuts since 2022. Two of these are in place until the end of 2026 and one is currently being unwound by the eight members.

MicroWatt Controls: Instrumentation & Safety System Experts

The 2027 baselines in theory could feature in production policy when all output cuts currently in place expire.

In April, eight OPEC+ members began to unwind the group’s most recent layer of output cuts, and for May and June made larger-than-expected hikes of 411,000 barrels per day.

OPEC+ sources have told Reuters the eight members at their meeting on Saturday may decide on a similar 411,000 bpd output hike for July. All sources declined to be identified by name due to the sensitivity of the matter.

Oil fell to a four-year low in April below $60 per barrel after OPEC+ said it was accelerating its output hike in May and as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs raised concerns of global economic weakness. Since then it has recovered to about $65.

Earlier this month, sources told Reuters that the eight countries, in addition to another 411,000 bpd output hike for July, may unwind the remainder of the most recent cut by the end of October.

Reporting by Alex Lawler, Ahmad Ghaddar, Olesya Astakhova, Maha El Dahan and Yousef Saba; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise