HSBC Lowers Brent Price Forecasts on Trade Tensions, Sluggish Oil Demand

HSBC revised down its Brent crude price forecast on Tuesday, citing rising trade tensions and an expected reduction in global oil demand.The bank cut its Brent price forecast to $68.5 per barrel for 2025 and $65 per barrel for 2026.

It also trimmed its global demand growth to 0.7 million barrel per day (mbd) for 2025 and 0.8 mbd for 2026 (vs 0.9 mbd previously for both years) on the expectations of a one percentage point hit to global GDP.

Vacillating U.S. trade policies have created uncertainty for global oil markets and prompted the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Monday to lower its demand outlook by 150,000 barrels per day.

“If prices remain around the low to mid-$60s per barrel by next winter, the group might decide to pause the unwinding of its cuts,” HSBC said in a note.

Brent crude futures were down 20 cents, or 0.3%, at $64.66 per barrel by 1049 GMT.

On the supply side, the bank noted that U.S. actions could modestly impact Venezuelan oil supply, while pressure on Iran by U.S. has yet to show results.

Elsewhere, other banks including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have also revised their oil price forecasts downwards.

On the geopolitical front, the Trump administration has launched probes into pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports, citing national security risks from heavy reliance on foreign production, Federal Register filings showed on Monday.

(Reporting by Daksh Grover and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; editing by David Evans)