Oil Supply Growth Set to Taper in 2024, Rystad Energy Says

The consultancy firm cited the recent extension of voluntary cuts by the OPEC+, as well as the group’s unchanged demand forecast for the outlook.

The total expected oil supply growth is now closer to 80,000 barrels per day (bpd) for 2024, compared to 900,000 bpd at the start of the month, Rystad estimates.

CONTEXT

OPEC+ agreed to extend the cuts of 3.66 million bpd by a year until the end of 2025 and prolong the cuts of 2.2 million bpd by three months until the end of September.

The group will gradually phase out the cuts of 2.2 million bpd over the course of a year from October to September 2025.

WHY IT’S IMPORTANT

The total global oil supply growth comes close to zero for this year with the latest guidance from OPEC+, Rystad said, adding if that materializes, 2024 will be the first year since the pandemic-hit 2020 with no oil supply growth.

Taking into consideration all countries with extended voluntary cuts, the total amount of oil withheld from the global market reaches 830,000 bpd in 2024 and 1.04 million bpd in 2025, according to the report.

“US shale remains a trustworthy source of growth, though less elastic to price changes and more consolidated after continued rounds of mergers and acquisitions. This reduces the short-term upside potential for a surprise in US growth,” the report said.

KEY QUOTES

“The market initially responded negatively to latest OPEC+ guidance. However, it’s difficult to remain completely bearish when global oil supply growth is expected to slow down in 2024 and reduced production is still a possibility in 2025,” said Patricio Valdivieso, vice president & global lead of crude trading analysis at Rystad Energy.

MARKET REACTION

Global benchmark Brent crude futures have gained 7.7% so far this year, according to LSEG data. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures have climbed 11.5%.

(Reporting by Vallari Srivastava in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila)