It’s no exaggeration to say the future of the nascent sector in the US hangs in the balance as the country heads toward the polls in November.

America is already the top shipper of LNG this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. But what’s at stake is the longer-term trajectory of the industry, with various companies jockeying to add more export capacity.

If enough new terminals get built, the US can remain at the forefront of the LNG market for decades to come.

But such an outcome isn’t assured. Biden this year paused the approval of new terminals while seeking a review of their environmental impacts.

That move pleased climate activists and supporters on the left of the Democratic Party. It also angered the US energy industry. Moderate Democrats pushed back, citing their desire to support Ukraine and European allies with long-term gas supplies.

Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm has sought to assure developers that the halt is just temporary and will be in the “rearview mirror” come 2025.

But even if Biden allows permitting to resume upon clinching a second term, he’s expected to impose higher hurdles that some projects can’t clear.

In addition, the environmental groups that led the charge against the construction of more export capacity are calling for a permanent ban, which could influence his approach.

In the event of a Trump victory, the former president has said he would immediately lift the moratorium.

That doesn’t necessarily put the industry in the clear: A Trump win would also bring uncertainties around foreign policy and trade, particularly related to China, a key consumer of LNG.

As far as the fuel’s future is concerned, neither presidential candidate is without risk.

–Ruth Liao, Bloomberg News