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Explainer: What OPEC+ Oil Output Cuts are Currently in Place?


These translations are done via Google Translate

(Reuters) – OPEC+ oil producers are making voluntary output cuts totalling about 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first half of 2024, led by Saudi Arabia rolling over an earlier voluntary cut.

These curbs from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, come on top of earlier reductions announced in various steps since late 2022 and bring the total pledged cuts to about 5.86 million bpd, equal to about 5.7% of daily world demand, according to Reuters calculations.

OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on June 1 in Vienna to decide its next output policy steps.

WHAT ARE THE MOST RECENT CUTS?

The latest 2.2 million bpd round of voluntary cuts was announced by the individual countries on Nov. 30 2023.

Initially in place for the first quarter of 2024, the countries in March extended them until the end of June and Russia slightly adjusted how its cut would be implemented.

Included in the 2.2 million bpd is an extension of existing Saudi and Russian voluntary cuts from 2023 of 1.3 million bpd, meaning the newest element of the cut is about 900,000 bpd.

WHAT WERE THE EARLIER CUTS?

Before November 2023, OPEC+ was making production cuts of about 5 million bpd, comprising 1.3 million bpd of Saudi and Russian voluntary cuts put in place earlier in 2023, and 3.66 million bpd agreed in previous steps.

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Of the 3.66 million bpd, 2 million bpd was agreed by OPEC+ in late 2022 and several members agreed voluntary cuts of 1.66 million bpd in April 2023.

OPEC+ when it met in June 2023 extended the 3.66 million bpd of cuts until the end of 2024.

HOW DO THE OUTPUT CUTS AFFECT TARGETS?

The following table shows OPEC+ pledged cuts and production targets for the first half of 2024 in millions of barrels per day, based on information from OPEC, individual nations and Reuters calculations.

Totals are rounded.

Country H1 2024 voluntary cuts pledged Implied H1 2024 targets Production target after H1 2024 Actual output (March 2024)*
Algeria 0.051 0.908 0.959 0.91
Congo** 0.000 0.277 0.277 0.26
Equatorial Guinea 0.000 0.070 0.070 0.06
Gabon 0.000 0.169 0.169 0.24
Iraq 0.220 4.009 4.22 4.26
Kuwait 0.135 2.413 2.548 2.47
Nigeria** 0.000 1.500 1.500 1.34
Saudi Arabia 1.000 8.978 9.978 9.02
UAE 0.163 2.912 3.075 3.22
Azerbaijan 0.000 0.551 0.551 0.48
Kazakhstan 0.082 1.468 1.55 1.63
Mexico 0.000 1.753 1.753 1.61
Oman 0.042 0.759 0.801 0.76
Russia*** 0.500 8.949 9.449 9.42
Bahrain**** 0 0.196 0.196 0.75
Brunei 0 0.083 0.083
Malaysia 0 0.401 0.401
South Sudan 0 0.124 0.124
Sudan 0 0.064 0.064
Total OPEC-9 1.569 21.236 22.796 21.78
Total Non-OPEC 0.624 14.348 14.972 14.65
Total OPEC+ 2.2 35.60 37.80 36.43

*International Energy Agency figures excluding OPEC members Iran, Libya and Venezuela which are exempt from making cuts

** Congo and Nigeria targets taken from OPEC statement putting their achievable production at this level

*** Russia initially promised to deepen cuts to 500,000 bpd of oil and oil product exports in the first quarter 2024. In March, Russia said it would cut 471,000 bpd from production and exports in April – June. The table is calculated using the initial figure

 

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