Oil Prices Steady as Focus Returns to Supply Outlook

Brent December crude futures rose 17 cents, or 0.18%, to $92.37 a barrel by 0802 GMT after falling 90 cents on Friday. Brent November futures settled 7 cents lower at $95.31 a barrel at the contract’s expiry on Friday.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 26 cents, or 0.29%, to $91.05 a barrel, after losing 92 cents on Friday.

Both benchmarks rallied nearly 30% in the third quarter on forecasts of a wide crude supply deficit in the fourth quarter after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended additional supply cuts to the end of the year.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with Russia and other allies, or OPEC+, is unlikely to tweak its current oil output policy when the panel called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meets on Wednesday, four OPEC+ sources told Reuters.

“Oil prices started the week on a strong note amid supply concerns with no policy change by OPEC+ expected, while the avoidance of a U.S. government shutdown over the weekend gave some relief,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading.

“Still, whether or not the market will rise further will depend on future demand trends,” he said

Speaking at an event in Abu Dhabi on Monday, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said the group still sees “oil demand as quite resilient this year, as it was last year.”

While OPEC+ is not expected to change its output policy given the recent strength in the market, Saudi Arabia could start to ease its additional voluntary supply cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd), said ING analysts in a note on Monday.

“The Saudis have said that there is still concern over Chinese demand. However, PMI data out over the weekend will provide some confidence.”

Official data on Saturday showed that China’s factory activity expanded for the first time in six months in September, adding to a run of indicators suggesting the world’s second-largest economy has begun to stabilise.