Oil Edges Higher as China Demand and US Dollar Take Center Stage

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Oil advanced as investors weighed the outlook for Chinese demand, while a weaker dollar made some commodities more attractive for buyers.West Texas Intermediate traded near $81 a barrel, after settling little changed on Wednesday. The number of virus-related deaths and severe cases at hospitals in China is now 70% lower than peak levels in early January, authorities said late Wednesday. That should aid a recovery in mobility and fuel consumption in the biggest oil importer.Crude has also benefited from a slump in the dollar, with a gauge of the greenback near the lowest since April. That drop — which makes raw materials priced in the US currency cheaper for overseas buyers — has been driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve may soften its rate hikes.

Oil Futures Edge Higher | Crude benchmarks rise with focus on China and US dollar

Oil has recovered from a steep drop at the start of the year, largely on hopes that Chinese consumption will pick up following years of lockdowns. Liquidity is also returning to the futures market, with open interest in global benchmark Brent near the highest since last February.

US crude inventories rose for a fifth week to the highest level since June 2021, the Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday. Still, the gain of 533,000 barrels was smaller than some market participants expected.

“Continuing inventory builds are somewhat limiting the upside of oil prices at the moment,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS. “The recent rise in open interest is likely due to commodities lagging Chinese equities in pricing in the optimism over Chinese demand returning.”

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Prices:

WTI for March delivery rose by 50 cents to $80.65 a barrel at 11:24 a.m. in London.
Brent for March settlement increased 0.7% to $86.69 a barrel.

In less than two weeks, a European Union ban on seaborne imports of Russian oil products will start at the same time as a Group of Seven-led price cap on the fuels, with concern it may be more disruptive to markets than recent sanctions on Russian crude. Russian shipments of diesel-type fuel from the Baltic port of Primorsk are on course to slow ahead of the restrictions.

Meanwhile, a 48-hour strike in France in protest against a government plan to overhaul the pension system is hampering deliveries of fuels from two oil refineries operated by TotalEnergies SE for the second time this month.