Additionally, mounting speculation that Iran’s nuclear deal may be revived is damping some of the bullish signals. The deal could pave the way for the removal of U.S. sanctions on the nation’s crude exports, adding much-needed supply to the market.
Read More: U.S. Ramps Up Ukraine Warnings as Russia Denies Invasion Plans
WTI’s prompt spread–the difference between its nearest two contracts– dropped to 86 cents, down sharply from its $2 premium earlier this week. The narrower spread signals that traders expect supplies to be somewhat less tight next month amid muted exports. March crude futures expire on Tuesday.
Crude rose to the highest since 2014 this week in a blistering rally underpinned by roaring demand, constrained supply, and declining inventories. The underlying market is one of the strongest its been in years, and Dated Brent, a more immediate measurement of oil prices, hit $100 a barrel. While the market remains strong, prices have weakened as the geopolitical risk premium has declined in the past few days.
“It doesn’t matter how tight the oil market is right now, energy traders are taking risk off the table,” said Ed Moya, Oanda’s senior market analyst for the Americas. “In addition to the Ukraine situation, Iran nuclear talks continue to head in the right direction, potentially paving the way for more barrels of crude to hit the oil market later this year.”
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Issues surrounding Iran’s nuclear accord are set to be discussed at a key transatlantic security meeting in Munich this weekend. A lifting of sanctions on oil shipments from the Persian Gulf producer would be a later phase of the agreement, Reuters reported, citing a draft text and unidentified diplomats.
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