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The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are likely to maintain their plan of raising output by 400,000 barrels a day, according to the United Arab Emirates. The group has so far ignored calls from some nations, including the U.S., to increase production faster in an attempt to control surging prices. Saudi Arabia expects inventories to rise over the next few months, reducing the need for OPEC+ to boost supply quicker.
The conference, running from Nov. 15-18, is taking place in the wake of the COP26 climate talks and with energy prices soaring. Benchmark Brent crude has climbed almost 60% to above $80 a barrel, while gas prices in Asia and Europe hit record highs recently.
Key developments:
- Biden should focus on U.S. oil before OPEC, Oxy says
- Barkindo says there were “alarm bells” for oil at COP26
- OPEC+ doesn’t need to raise output faster, say UAE and Oman
- Saudi minister sees inventories building
- Vitol says U.S. oil release unlikely to have much impact on prices
- Oil could hit $100, Eni says
- India says disorderly energy transition risks high oil prices, “chaos”
(Timestamps in UAE.)
UAE, Russia Agree on Joint Energy Work (4:30 p.m.)
The UAE and Russia signed a joint declaration of intent to enhance their collaboration on energy. They will create a committee that will drive investments and come up with regulatory frameworks, said Sharif Al Olama, under-secretary of the UAE’s Ministry of Energy and Industry.
Carbon capture, use and storage may be the biggest area for the two countries to collaborate on, Denis Derushkin, deputy general director of the Russian Energy Agency said on a panel after the signing.
U.S. Oil Release Unlikely to Affect Prices: Vitol (4:23 p.m.)
Even if the U.S. were to release oil from its strategic petroleum reserves, it wouldn’t change things fundamentally in terms of prices, Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said.
Global demand will continue to increase next year, even as oil use by industries has already topped the levels of 2019. Consumption of road fuels though is still slightly lagging behind, he said.
“Supply isn’t expected to grow significantly outside of OPEC, there’s a little bit of growth in the U.S., so the cards remain pretty much in the hands of the OPEC+ group in terms of how much oil they want to add to the market,” he said.
BP Expects ‘Robust’ Oil Prices for Longer (2:41 p.m.)
Oil prices are likely to remain high for longer, BP Plc CEO Bernard Looney said.
“There’s a constructive market at the moment and I think you can expect oil prices to remain robust for some time to come,” he said.
Still, the company is being run to break even at an oil price of $40 a barrel since “there are many uncertainties,” Looney said. Occidental Petroleum Corp.’s CEO Vicki Hollub said her company also had a $40 breakeven oil price.
Looney also called the recent COP26 summit “a success” because it included a pledge from nations to cut emissions of the greenhouse house. Methane “is now on the global agenda,” he said. “We have more ambition, not enough, but we have more ambition.”
Biden Should Focus on U.S. Oil, Not OPEC, Oxy Says (1:50 p.m.)
President Joe Biden should focus on raising U.S. oil production rather than putting pressure on OPEC+ to pump faster, Occidental’s Hollub said. If the administration wants more supply, they should ask U.S. producers first, she said.
“If I was going to make a call, I’d make a local call first,” she said. “I wouldn’t make a long distance call.”
OPEC Under-Production Not an Issue: UAE (1:45 p.m.)
Some OPEC nations producing below their quota isn’t a concern, UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said.
Some of the group’s members, including Angola and Nigeria, have struggled to keep up with the planned production increases following investment constraints and export suspensions.
He also said that oil and gas will always be used for energy, and it’s “delusional” to think they will be phased out.
Poor Nations Need to Pump Their Fossil Fuels (1:20 p.m.)
“We aren’t going to allow oil and gas not to be developed because of the energy transition,” Equatorial Guinea’s energy minister, Gabriel Obiang Lima, said. “We are a small and poor country. If the U.S. and others won’t help us develop it, maybe China, Brazil, the Middle East or Turkey will.”
Barkindo Says ‘Alarm Bells’ in Glasgow (1:10 p.m.)
This year was the first of the COP talks where the oil and gas industry was targeted but had no place in the conversation about slowing climate change, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said.
“For us attending in Glasgow, this was an alarm bell,” he said. “I left Glasgow with this sobering feeling.”
IEA Call to Stop New Oil Spending Not Helpful: Oman (12:40 p.m.)
The International Energy Agency’s call this year for an end to new oil and gas exploration “wasn’t very helpful,” Oman’s energy minister, Mohammed Al-Rumhy, said.
The Persian Gulf sultanate pumps about 650,000 barrels of crude a day. The Paris-based IEA, which advised rich countries on energy policy, said in May that stopping of all new investment in fossil fuels was necessary to neutralize carbon emissions by 2050.
Ukraine Says Russia Creating ‘Artificial Shortage’ of Gas (12:12 p.m.)
Russia is creating “artificial shortages” of natural gas and should increase supplies to Europe to ease the energy crisis, according to the chief of Ukraine’s state-run energy company.
“If they abandon this abusive policy, there will be no problem for Europeans this winter,” Yuriy Vitrenko, CEO of Naftogaz Ukraine, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
Ukraine is pushing to remain a key transit route for the fuel, just as Russia is going ahead with the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany. The link is completed and designed to bypass Ukraine, but it still lacks final regulatory approvals.
India Calls for Orderly Energy Transition (12:01 p.m.)
The success of the energy transition depends on how well it is managed, otherwise it will trigger higher prices and “chaos,” India’s Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said in an interview.
Oil price levels will also determine how the energy shift plays out, he said, when asked if crude could reach $100 a barrel this year. “If prices go up like that, the transition will not be very orderly.”
OPEC+ to Stick With Output Plan (11:48 a.m.)
OPEC+ is likely to stick with its plan of raising daily output by 400,000 barrels per month, UAE’s Al Mazrouei said, echoing comments from his Omani counterpart. The alliance doesn’t need to boost supply quicker because the oil market will switch from a supply deficit to surplus early next year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said he inventories could rise in December and into the next quarter.
“The 400,000 is continuing and that should be enough,” Mazrouei said in an interview in Abu Dhabi. “All what we know and what all the experts in the world are saying is that we will have a surplus. So we need not to panic, we need to be calm.”
World Slept-Walked Into Energy Crisis: Adnoc (10:30 a.m.)
The world has walked into the supply crunch following almost a decade of under-investments, Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc, said. The oil and gas industry will have to invest over $600 billion annually until 2030 just to keep up with expected demand, he said.
People are still heavily reliant on oil and gas, he said, despite recent agreements to accelerate the energy transition.
“Renewable energy is the fastest growing segment of the energy mix, but oil and gas is still the biggest and will be for decades to come,” he said. “The future is coming but it is not here yet.”
No Need for OPEC+ to Raise Output Faster, Oman Says (10:18 a.m.)
Oman said there was no need for OPEC+ to accelerate oil-production increases, signaling at least some members of the group will continue to resist U.S. pressure for more crude.
OPEC+ is already raising daily supply by 400,000 barrels per month and that’s enough, Oman’s Energy Minister Mohammed Al-Rumhy said in an interview in Abu Dhabi, where he’s attending the Adipec conference.
The 23-nation group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia and which includes Oman, is not concerned about the U.S. potentially releasing oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, he said. That wouldn’t oversupply the market, he said.
Oil Could Rise to $100, Eni Says (9:30 a.m.)
Italy’s Eni SpA said oil prices may rise to $100 a barrel due to a lack of investment among energy companies, though only for a short time.
“Maybe it can reach that,” Chief Executive Officer Claudio Descalzi said on Bloomberg Television on Monday. “But not for a long time. When the price is that high,” it would lead to consumers cutting back on energy use.
The oil and gas sector hasn’t invested enough in recent years, he said.
“We are investing more or less 50% of what we invested in 2013,” he said. “There is a gap between supply and demand. It’ll take some time before oil companies start investing again.”
Global oil consumption is approaching 100 million barrels a day, he said, or close to record highs.
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