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U.S. natgas slips ahead of storage report on forecasts for less demand


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These translations are done via Google Translate

Reuters

U.S. natural gas futures slipped about 2% on Thursday on forecasts for slightly lowerdemand next week and a easing of gas prices in Europe ahead of a U.S. storage report expected to show a

That price decline came despite forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand this week and

record gas prices in Asia that will keep demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong. Even with

the cooler forecast, the U.S. weather was still expected to remain milder than normal through early November.

Analysts forecast U.S. utilities added 90 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week

ended Oct. 15. That compares with an increase of 49 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2016-2020)average increase of 69 bcf.

If correct, last week’s injection would boost stockpiles to 3.459 trillion cubic feet (tcf), which would

be 4.2% below the five-year average of 3.612 tcf for this time of year.

Front-month gas futures fell 9.3 cents, or 1.8%, to $5.077 per million British thermal units

(mmBtu) at 8:04 a.m. EDT (1204 GMT).

In early October, U.S. gas prices soared to their highest since 2008 on expectations global competition

for LNG would keep demand for U.S. exports strong. But after weeks of mild weather, U.S. prices dropped about

25% amid growing belief that the United States will have more than enough gas in storage for the winterheating season.  Around the world, however, gas prices were still at or near record highs as utilities scramble for more

gas to refill dangerously low stockpiles in Europe and meet insatiable demand in Asia. High prices and energy

shortages have already caused power cuts in Asia and some industries in both Europe and Asia to shut or

curtail manufacturing activities. But no matter how high global gas prices rise, U.S. LNG export plants were already operating near full

capacity and will not be able to produce much more LNG until later in the year.

Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to an average of 92.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, up from 91.1 bcfd in September.

Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 86.1 bcfd this week to87.6 bcfd next week as more homes and businesses turn on their heaters with a seasonal cooling of the weather.

With gas prices near $31 per mmBtu in Europe and $36 in Asia, versus just $5 in the

United States, traders said buyers around the world will keep purchasing all the LNG the United States could

produce.

Refinitiv said the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 10.4 bcfd so far in October,

the same as in September, but was expected to rise in coming weeks as more liquefaction trains exit

maintenance outages.

But the United States only has capacity to turn about 10.5 bcfd of gas into LNG.

In the power market, next-day prices at the ERCOT North Hub in Texas jumped to $145 permegawatt hour for Wednesday and $235 for Thursday from $44 for Tuesday as homes and businesses crank up their

air conditioners to escape a late October hot spell.

Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year

Oct 15 Oct 8 Oct 15 average

(Forecast) (Actual) Oct 15

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 90 81 49 69

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,459 3,369 3,919 3,612

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -4.2% -4.9%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year

Last Year Average Average

2020 (2016-2020)

Henry Hub 5.09 5.17 2.84 2.13 2.66

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 30.70 31.66 4.89 3.24 5.19

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 35.56 34.89 5.97 4.22 6.49Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year

Norm Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs 150 136 186 128 183

U.S. GFS CDDs 34 37 39 44 27

U.S. GFS TDDs 184 173 225 172 210

Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year

Last Year Average For

Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 92.2 91.9 92.2 90.0 83.1

U.S. Imports from Canada 7.3 7.4 7.2 6.6 7.5

U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

Total U.S. Supply 99.5 99.3 99.4 96.6 90.7

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada 2.4 1.9 1.9 2.3 2.0

U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.8 6.0 5.8 6.2 5.0

U.S. LNG Exports 10.6 10.7 10.7 8.1 3.7U.S. Commercial 5.3 6.4 7.2 7.1 6.8

U.S. Residential 5.0 7.2 9.0 8.1 7.2

U.S. Power Plant 28.8 26.0 25.0 29.1 27.7

U.S. Industrial 20.8 21.3 21.4 22.6 21.6

U.S. Plant Fuel 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.5

U.S. Pipe Distribution 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7

U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Total U.S. Consumption 66.4 67.4 69.2 73.3 69.6

Total U.S. Demand 85.2 86.1 87.6 89.9 80.3

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub Current Day Prior Day

Henry Hub 4.87 4.81

Transco Z6 New York 4.25 3.92

PG&E Citygate 6.77 6.70

Dominion South 4.02 3.82

Chicago Citygate 4.85 4.63

Algonquin Citygate 4.39 4.22

SoCal Citygate 6.26 6.07

Waha Hub 4.77 4.65

SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub Current Day Prior Day

New England 60.00 56.75

PJM West 42.75 44.25

Ercot North 235.00 145.00

Mid C 67.75 75.00

Palo Verde 63.25 62.75

SP-15 62.25 61.75



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