NEW YORK, Sept 8 (Reuters) – U.S. crude oil production is expected to fall by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 11.08 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday, noting that Hurricane Ida should force a bigger decline than its previous forecast for a drop of 160,000 bpd.
More than 90% of crude output in offshore Gulf of Mexico was shut in late August due to the powerful storm. Several companies are still in the process of returning production to normal levels and restart plans have been slowed due to power outages and damage to some facilities.
As a result of the outage, Gulf of Mexico (GOM) production averaged 1.5 million bpd in August, down 300,000 million bpd from July, the agency said.
Output in the GOM is expected to gradually come back online during September and average 1.2 million bpd for the month before returning to an average of 1.7 million bpd in fourth quarter.
The agency also said it expects U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuel consumption to rise 1.55 million bpd to 19.74 million bpd in 2021, a smaller increase compared with a previous forecast for a rise of 1.58 million bpd.
For 2022, U.S. crude output is expected to increase to average about 11.72 million bpd, driven by growth in shale production.
The total oil and gas rig count is up about 94% over this time last year.
Demand for 2022 is expected to rise 890,000 bpd to 20.63 million bpd, a bigger increase than the agency’s previous forecast for a rise of 860,000 bpd.
Globally, an estimated 98.4 million bpd of petroleum and liquid fuels was consumed globally in August, an increase of 5.7 million bpd from August 2020 but still 4 million bpd less than in August 2019, the EIA said.