CDN NEWS | 
US NEWS 
Front-month gas futures settled at $4.027 per million British thermal units, with a gain of 9.2 cents, or 2.3%, their most since July 20.
“We’ve got some hot weather in most of the gas-consuming regions of the U.S., and the market will stay strong as long as the weather remains hot,” said Thomas Saal, senior vice president of energy at StoneX.
“With higher gas prices outside the U.S., LNG exports should remain elevated, while supply ramps up at a slower pace than before, keeping the market tight.”
Data provider Refinitiv projected U.S. demand, including exports, will rise from an average of 90.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 95 bcfd next week.
The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 10.8 bcfd in July, up from 10.1 bcfd in June but still below April’s 11.5-bcfd record.
Refinitiv said average U.S. production would increase slightly to 92.3 bcfd next week from 92 bcfd this week. That is still well below November’s all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd.
With European gas prices near record levels and Asian gas trading over $15 per mmBtu, analysts expect U.S. LNG exports to remain elevated this year.
“The bulls are taking a breath after running up the prices, waiting for other market signal to go even higher,” said Zhen Zhu, economist at Oklahoma City-based C.H. Guernsey.
Zhu said some fundamental reasons for the high prices include higher demand due to summer heat, a forecasted very active storm season, a large storage deficit and record gas exports (both the LNG and pipeline exports).
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Week ended Jul 30(Forecast)
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Week ended Jul 23 (Actual)
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Year ago Jul 30
|
Five-year average Jul 30
|
||
|
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
|
24
|
36
|
32
|
30
|
|
|
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
|
Current Day
|
Prior Day
|
This Month Last Year
|
Prior Year Average 2020
|
Five Year Average (2016-2020)
|
|
Henry Hub
|
4.012
|
4.036
|
2.13
|
2.66
|
|
|
Title Transfer Facility (TTF)
|
14.44
|
14.52
|
3.24
|
5.19
|
|
|
Japan Korea Marker (JKM)
|
15.47
|
14.76
|
4.22
|
6.49
|
|
|
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
|
|||||
|
Two-Week Total Forecast
|
Current Day
|
Prior Day
|
Prior Year
|
10-Year Norm
|
30-Year Norm
|
|
U.S. GFS HDDs
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
4
|
4
|
|
U.S. GFS CDDs
|
233
|
228
|
213
|
200
|
196
|
|
U.S. GFS TDDs
|
234
|
230
|
214
|
204
|
200
|
|
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
|
|||||
|
Prior Week
|
Current Week
|
Next Week
|
This Week Last Year
|
Five-Year Average For Month
|
|
|
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
|
|||||
|
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
|
91.9
|
92
|
92.3
|
89.7
|
|
|
U.S. Imports from Canada
|
7.2
|
7
|
7.2
|
||
|
U.S. LNG Imports
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
Total U.S. Supply
|
99.2
|
99
|
99.4
|
||
|
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
|
|||||
|
U.S. Exports to Canada
|
2.1
|
2.2
|
2.2
|
2.1
|
|
|
U.S. Exports to Mexico
|
6.5
|
6.1
|
6.5
|
5.7
|
|
|
U.S. LNG Exports
|
10.8
|
10.6
|
10.7
|
4.1
|
|
|
U.S. Commercial
|
4.4
|
4.4
|
4.4
|
4.4
|
|
|
U.S. Residential
|
3.5
|
3.5
|
3.5
|
3.6
|
|
|
U.S. Power Plant
|
40.9
|
36.5
|
39.9
|
39.7
|
|
|
U.S. Industrial
|
20.8
|
20.9
|
21
|
21.4
|
|
|
U.S. Plant Fuel
|
4.5
|
4.5
|
4.6
|
||
|
U.S. Pipe Distribution
|
2
|
1.9
|
2
|
1.9
|
|
|
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
|
|
Total U.S. Consumption
|
76.3
|
71.9
|
75.6
|
||
|
Total U.S. Demand
|
95.7
|
90.8
|
95
|
||
|
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
|
|||||
|
Hub
|
Current Day
|
Prior Day
|
|||
|
Henry Hub
|
4.02
|
3.94
|
|||
|
Transco Z6 New York
|
3.24
|
2.9
|
|||
|
PG&E Citygate
|
5.56
|
5.41
|
|||
|
Dominion South
|
3.14
|
2.86
|
|||
|
Chicago Citygate
|
3.85
|
3.7
|
|||
|
Algonquin Citygate
|
3.32
|
3
|
|||
|
SoCal Citygate
|
8.05
|
7.61
|
|||
|
Waha Hub
|
3.81
|
3.59
|
|||
|
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
|
|||||
|
Hub
|
Current Day
|
Prior Day
|
|||
|
New England
|
35.5
|
30.5
|
|||
|
PJM West
|
32.75
|
29.5
|
|||
|
Ercot North
|
41.75
|
69.75
|
|||
|
Mid C
|
138.8
|
145
|
|||
|
Palo Verde
|
119.6
|
96.27
|
|||
|
SP-15
|
97.5
|
107.25
|
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