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Hazloc Heaters
Hazloc Heaters

U.S. natgas gains as forecasts project hotter weather


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These translations are done via Google Translate

Front-month gas futures rose 2.1 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $3.935 per million British thermal units.

“The market is looking ahead to what could be a very hot end to the summer, with the cooling degree days likely to go up a little bit,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.

Data provider Refinitiv projected U.S. demand, including exports, will rise from an average of 91.2 bcfd this week to 95.2 bcfd next week.

“Today’s price advance, although contained below Friday’s highs, reinforced our bullish view as we still see achievement of the $4.18 level as a high probability before this week is out,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois.

“We believe that early gains were shaved by the plunge in petroleum values and that today’s highs will see violation by mid-week at the latest.”

Last week, natgas prices jumped to their highest since December 2018 at $4.187.

Flynn also expects U.S. LNG exports to stay “exceedingly” strong and U.S. supply to remain weak, leading to a tight market this year, which should support prices.

The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 10.8 bcfd in July, up from 10.1 bcfd in June but still below April’s record 11.5 bcfd.

Refinitiv said average U.S. production would remain unchanged at 92.2 billion cubic feet per day next week from this week. That is still well below November’s all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd.

With European gas prices at record levels and Asian gas trading near $15 per mmBtu, analysts expect U.S. LNG exports to remain elevated this year.

Week ended Jul 30(Forecast)
Week ended Jul 23 (Actual)
Year ago Jul 30
Five-year average Jul 30
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
28
36
32
30
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2020
Five Year Average (2016-2020)
Henry Hub
4.036
4
2.13
2.66
Title Transfer Facility (TTF)
14.52
13.96
3.24
5.19
Japan Korea Marker (JKM)
14.76
15.25
4.22
6.49
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
2
2
2
4
4
U.S. GFS CDDs
228
219
214
200
197
U.S. GFS TDDs
230
221
216
204
201
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
91.9
92.2
92.2
U.S. Imports from Canada
7.2
7
7
U.S. LNG Imports
0
0
0
Total U.S. Supply
99.2
99.2
99.2
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
2.1
2.2
2.2
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.5
6.2
6.5
U.S. LNG Exports
10.8
10.6
10.7
U.S. Commercial
4.4
4.4
4.4
U.S. Residential
3.5
3.5
3.6
U.S. Power Plant
40.9
36.8
40
U.S. Industrial
20.8
20.9
21
U.S. Plant Fuel
4.5
4.6
4.6
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2
1.9
2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
Total U.S. Consumption
76.3
72.2
75.7
Total U.S. Demand
95.7
91.2
95.2
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
Henry Hub
3.94
4.03
Transco Z6 New York
2.9
2.87
PG&E Citygate
5.41
5.48
Dominion South
2.86
2.76
Chicago Citygate
3.7
3.79
Algonquin Citygate
3
2.83
SoCal Citygate
7.61
7.75
Waha Hub
3.59
3.84
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
New England
30.5
38
PJM West
29.5
33.25
Ercot North
69.75
80
Mid C
145
595
Palo Verde
96.27
177.5
SP-15
107.25


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