CDN NEWS | 
US NEWS 
Aug 2 (Reuters) – U.S. natural gas futures rose on Monday as forecasts predicted hotter weather over the coming weeks than previously expected, which is likely to boost demand for cooling.
Front-month gas futures rose 2.1 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $3.935 per million British thermal units.
“The market is looking ahead to what could be a very hot end to the summer, with the cooling degree days likely to go up a little bit,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.
Data provider Refinitiv projected U.S. demand, including exports, will rise from an average of 91.2 bcfd this week to 95.2 bcfd next week.
“Today’s price advance, although contained below Friday’s highs, reinforced our bullish view as we still see achievement of the $4.18 level as a high probability before this week is out,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois.
“We believe that early gains were shaved by the plunge in petroleum values and that today’s highs will see violation by mid-week at the latest.”
Last week, natgas prices jumped to their highest since December 2018 at $4.187.
Flynn also expects U.S. LNG exports to stay “exceedingly” strong and U.S. supply to remain weak, leading to a tight market this year, which should support prices.
The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 10.8 bcfd in July, up from 10.1 bcfd in June but still below April’s record 11.5 bcfd.
Refinitiv said average U.S. production would remain unchanged at 92.2 billion cubic feet per day next week from this week. That is still well below November’s all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd.
With European gas prices at record levels and Asian gas trading near $15 per mmBtu, analysts expect U.S. LNG exports to remain elevated this year.
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Week ended Jul 30(Forecast)
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Week ended Jul 23 (Actual)
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Year ago Jul 30
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Five-year average Jul 30
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||
|
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
|
28
|
36
|
32
|
30
|
|
|
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
|
Current Day
|
Prior Day
|
This Month Last Year
|
Prior Year Average 2020
|
Five Year Average (2016-2020)
|
|
Henry Hub
|
4.036
|
4
|
2.13
|
2.66
|
|
|
Title Transfer Facility (TTF)
|
14.52
|
13.96
|
3.24
|
5.19
|
|
|
Japan Korea Marker (JKM)
|
14.76
|
15.25
|
4.22
|
6.49
|
|
|
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
|
|||||
|
Two-Week Total Forecast
|
Current Day
|
Prior Day
|
Prior Year
|
10-Year Norm
|
30-Year Norm
|
|
U.S. GFS HDDs
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
4
|
4
|
|
U.S. GFS CDDs
|
228
|
219
|
214
|
200
|
197
|
|
U.S. GFS TDDs
|
230
|
221
|
216
|
204
|
201
|
|
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
|
|||||
|
Prior Week
|
Current Week
|
Next Week
|
This Week Last Year
|
Five-Year Average For Month
|
|
|
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
|
|||||
|
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
|
91.9
|
92.2
|
92.2
|
||
|
U.S. Imports from Canada
|
7.2
|
7
|
7
|
||
|
U.S. LNG Imports
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
||
|
Total U.S. Supply
|
99.2
|
99.2
|
99.2
|
||
|
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
|
|||||
|
U.S. Exports to Canada
|
2.1
|
2.2
|
2.2
|
||
|
U.S. Exports to Mexico
|
6.5
|
6.2
|
6.5
|
||
|
U.S. LNG Exports
|
10.8
|
10.6
|
10.7
|
||
|
U.S. Commercial
|
4.4
|
4.4
|
4.4
|
||
|
U.S. Residential
|
3.5
|
3.5
|
3.6
|
||
|
U.S. Power Plant
|
40.9
|
36.8
|
40
|
||
|
U.S. Industrial
|
20.8
|
20.9
|
21
|
||
|
U.S. Plant Fuel
|
4.5
|
4.6
|
4.6
|
||
|
U.S. Pipe Distribution
|
2
|
1.9
|
2
|
||
|
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
||
|
Total U.S. Consumption
|
76.3
|
72.2
|
75.7
|
||
|
Total U.S. Demand
|
95.7
|
91.2
|
95.2
|
||
|
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
|
|||||
|
Hub
|
Current Day
|
Prior Day
|
|||
|
Henry Hub
|
3.94
|
4.03
|
|||
|
Transco Z6 New York
|
2.9
|
2.87
|
|||
|
PG&E Citygate
|
5.41
|
5.48
|
|||
|
Dominion South
|
2.86
|
2.76
|
|||
|
Chicago Citygate
|
3.7
|
3.79
|
|||
|
Algonquin Citygate
|
3
|
2.83
|
|||
|
SoCal Citygate
|
7.61
|
7.75
|
|||
|
Waha Hub
|
3.59
|
3.84
|
|||
|
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
|
|||||
|
Hub
|
Current Day
|
Prior Day
|
|||
|
New England
|
30.5
|
38
|
|||
|
PJM West
|
29.5
|
33.25
|
|||
|
Ercot North
|
69.75
|
80
|
|||
|
Mid C
|
145
|
595
|
|||
|
Palo Verde
|
96.27
|
177.5
|
|||
|
SP-15
|
107.25
|
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